566
FXUS61 KBGM 011045
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
TODAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH
A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
640 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE SUN UP AND TEMPERATURES RISING, THE FROST ADVISORY WAS
ENDED A FEW HOURS EARLY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASED
OVERNIGHT AS THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE OF GREATER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH THE 6Z MODELS.
330 AM UPDATE...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVED IN EARLIER THIS EVENING AND HAS
REALLY SLOWED THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. AREAS IN THE FINGER LAKES
ARE STILL IN THE 40S AND WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING IN A FEW
HOURS AND MORE CLOUDS STREAMING IN, IT WILL BE HARD FOR THE
TEMPERATURES TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR A FROST. RIDGING BUILDS IN
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF
THE REGION THOUGH THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANY RAIN
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUDS AND THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION UNDER THE
RIDGE KEEPS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPED. OVERNIGHT, AS THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL AND THE 850 MB WINDS INCREASE AND ADVECTS
IN BETTER MOISTURE, SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPS WITH THE
500 MB SHORTWAVE HELPING TO TRIGGER THE STORMS. FOR THIS REASON,
THE OVERNIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WERE CHANGED TO COVERAGE RATHER THAN
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GRIDS AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THERE WILL BE
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY AND EVEN A LITTLE MUGGY WITH
DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. WITH GREENUP
AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION, ITS POSSIBLE THE DEW POINTS
COULD GO UP A LITTLE MORE THAN FORECAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MARGINAL CAPE THAT DEVELOPS, MOSTLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ALSO OVER 30 KNOTS IN
MOST OF THE MODELS SO IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP, THEN THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
315 AM UPDATE...
A BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THIS PERIOD.
THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY TILT FROM POSITIVE TO MORE
NEUTRAL AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SW FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK VORTICITY. AS THE TROUGH
TILTS NEUTRAL, A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND RIDE A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING REMAINS LOW AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW'S DEVELOPMENT.
CURRENTLY, NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SETTING UP FROM SW TO NE
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO ONEIDA COUNTY. THIS BRINGS A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY, WITH
LOW 60S TO THE NW OF THE FRONT AND 70S TO THE SE. THE FRONT SAGS
TO THE SE AFTER THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA. RAIN
SHOWERS BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGHER PWATS ADVECT INTO THE AREA, WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
HELPING TO ENHANCE RAIN DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRETTY WELL SATURATED PROFILE, WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. RAIN WILL
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONTINUED MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND SE OF WHERE
THE FRONT SETTLES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME TOGETHER ON HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP FOR THIS PERIOD. WHAT WAS ONCE WILDLY VARYING
SOLUTIONS IS NOW SETTLING ON A VERY DEEP, STACKED CUTOFF LOW
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN US. THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE CWA, ALLOWS SE FLOW TO PUSH ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING
THROUGH THE FLOW SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PATH OF THE CUTOFF LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO
THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES IS STILL UNKNOWN. NBM
QPF IS OUTPUTTING BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NEPA AND THE
CATSKILLS. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOWARDS 6Z TONIGHT WITH SOME
PROB30S ADDED FOR AIRPORTS THAT MAY SEE SOME MVFR RESTRICTIONS
WITH THESE SHOWERS. RME AND SYR COULD SEE SOME RAIN AS WELL BUT
DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS EVEN WITH RAIN INITIALLY BEFORE CIGS DROP. WINDS
PICK UP ALOFT OVER SYR AND RME AS WELL WITH SOME LLWS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG
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