061
FXUS61 KBGM 011842
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
242 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WEEKEND
AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
240 PM UPDATE...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT A STRONG LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EJECTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS EVENING OVER 500 J/KG
WEST OF THE I81 CORRIDOR. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AT LEAST SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO OUR
AREA LATER TONIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST
THE MCS TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS
SYSTEM JUST PRODUCES A GUSTY LINE OF SHOWERS WITH MAYBE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER.
SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND EVEN A LITTLE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MARGINAL CAPE THAT DEVELOPS, MOSTLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ALSO 30-35 KNOTS IN MOST
OF THE MODELS, SO IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP, THEN THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA EXCEPT THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH OF THE I90
CORRIDOR, WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
315 AM UPDATE...
A BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US WILL BE THE
MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THIS PERIOD.
THE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND SLOWLY TILT FROM POSITIVE TO MORE
NEUTRAL AS THE NIGHT GOES ON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SW FLOW ADVECTS HIGHER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME WEAK VORTICITY. AS THE TROUGH
TILTS NEUTRAL, A SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND RIDE A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS PROGGED
TO DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING REMAINS LOW AS MODELS DIFFER ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT AND THE TIMING OF THE LOW'S DEVELOPMENT.
CURRENTLY, NBM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FRONT SETTING UP FROM SW TO NE
FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER TO ONEIDA COUNTY. THIS BRINGS A
WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SATURDAY, WITH
LOW 60S TO THE NW OF THE FRONT AND 70S TO THE SE. THE FRONT SAGS
TO THE SE AFTER THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA. RAIN
SHOWERS BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
HIGHER PWATS ADVECT INTO THE AREA, WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY
HELPING TO ENHANCE RAIN DEVELOPMENT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A
PRETTY WELL SATURATED PROFILE, WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. RAIN WILL
LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS CONTINUED MOISTURE AND
VORTICITY ADVECT INTO THE REGION. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. 0.5 TO 1 INCH OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG AND SE OF WHERE
THE FRONT SETTLES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME TOGETHER ON HOW THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL DEVELOP FOR THIS PERIOD. WHAT WAS ONCE WILDLY VARYING
SOLUTIONS IS NOW SETTLING ON A VERY DEEP, STACKED CUTOFF LOW
SETTING UP OVER THE EASTERN US. THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW,
WHICH IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF
THE CWA, ALLOWS SE FLOW TO PUSH ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING
THROUGH THE FLOW SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE PATH OF THE CUTOFF LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SO
THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN CHANCES IS STILL UNKNOWN. NBM
QPF IS OUTPUTTING BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS NEPA AND THE
CATSKILLS. TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. A FEW
RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO MOVE IN TOWARDS AFTER THAT FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO AS
THUNDER AT ANY ONE LOCATION, SO FOR NOW THE FORECAST INCLUDES MVFR
RESTRICTIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS. LLWS MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE LATE
TONIGHT AT SYR AND RME.
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF IFR
CEILINGS AT BGM THAT SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING
THROUGH.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MPK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page