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FXUS61 KBGM 020552
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
152 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WEEKEND
AND AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
AS AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
830 PM UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE WAS DONE FOR POPS AS SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY MOVED
EAST. THE CAMS HAVE BEEN LAGGING BEHIND FROM WHAT HAS BEEN
HAPPENING. BLENDED GUIDANCE ALONG WITH SOME MANUAL EDITS WERE
USED TO INCREASE POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WE CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP IN THE REGION,
BUT JUST LIKE THE LAST UPDATE, INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO TOUCHED UP AS
THEY HAVE NOT QUITE COOLED AS QUICKLY AS ORIGINALLY FORECASTED
DESPITE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
545 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE JUST ENTERED THE REGION AND ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF STEUBEN COUNTY. THERE IS LITTLE
TO NO INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STAYED
TO THE WEST. POPS WERE LEFT UNTOUCHED AS THEY CURRENTLY HAVE THE
SHOWERS COVERED. TEMPERATURES WERE TOUCHED UP AS CONDITIONS
WERE A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECASTED. CLOUD COVER WAS
INCREASED FOR THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE LATER ROUND OF
SHOWERS THAT ARE EXPECTED. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WAS DOING
WELL AND NEEDED NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES.
240 PM UPDATE...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER
THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THAT A STRONG LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EJECTING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SHOWING SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY THIS EVENING OVER 500 J/KG
WEST OF THE I81 CORRIDOR. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR FOR AT LEAST SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO SURVIVE INTO OUR
AREA LATER TONIGHT. STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST
THE MCS TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS, HOWEVER, IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THIS
SYSTEM JUST PRODUCES A GUSTY LINE OF SHOWERS WITH MAYBE SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDER.
SHOWERS EXIT THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN THERE
SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE WARM AND EVEN A LITTLE MUGGY WITH DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MARGINAL CAPE THAT DEVELOPS, MOSTLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS ALSO 30-35 KNOTS IN MOST
OF THE MODELS, SO IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP, THEN THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS INCLUDED MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA EXCEPT THE FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH OF THE I90
CORRIDOR, WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
320 PM UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG AND
RIDING UP THE BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO A STEADIER PERIOD
OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AND AS IT DOES SO, A CLOSED,
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE FORMING THAT DRIFTS OVER THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BECOMES THE
MAIN DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ON SUNDAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE BY, AND WAVES OF ENERGY
AND MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PWATS RISE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO AROUND 1.20-1.40 INCHES WITH THE
EURO AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE MOST MOISTURE-RICH AIR MORE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SOUTH UNTIL SUNDAY, WHILE THE
GFS SPREADS THAT MOISTURE ALL THE WAY NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. A
GENERAL 0.5-1.00 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH NE PA INTO THE
CATSKILLS LOOKING TO BE THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR A
POTENTIAL 1.50-2.00 INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES DURING THIS TIME LOOK HIGHEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE PA WITH MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1000
J/KG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXCEEDING 7.5 DEGREES C/KM FOR PARTS OF THAT REGION, SO THIS
WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND STALLING OUT. FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE SYRACUSE METRO, FINGER LAKES REGION AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S, WHILE PORTIONS OF NE PA INTO THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE A DECENT SPREAD
IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
PARTS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY IN NE PA
CAN REACH THE LOW AND MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
320 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST, BUT REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA WHICH WILL
KEEP A MOIST, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING
SHOWERS CHANCES IN PLACE. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY, BUT LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY
TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WERE
PRESENT AT MOST TERMINALS AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS,
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN.
TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FOR NOW AS THE FEW IN THE AREA WILL MISS THE TERMINALS.
RME MAY HOLD ON TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CIGS BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY VFR FROM 12Z
ONWARD WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM THIS EVENING WITH PROB30S
ADDED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE ROUGH TIMING OF THE STORMS. AVP
MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THIS NEXT BATCH AND THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT SYR AND RME AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN THE
FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER REGIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...AJG
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