768
FXUS61 KBGM 020650
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE
COOL TO THE NORTH WITH 50S IN CENTRAL NY AND WARM TO THE SOUTH
WITH 70S IN NEPA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
245 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT BY WARMER
WATER VAPOR TEMPERATURES ON GOES EAST, WILL HELP END THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY THE MORNING. SOME TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY STABLE AIR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES UN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE FINGER LAKES WHERE THERE IS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LEADING TO SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THOUGH IF
SOMETHING WAS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE MID LEVEL CAPPING, THERE
IS ENOUGH SHEAR (40-50 KNOTS) TO POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TONIGHT WILL HAVE ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWING
THROUGH, THOUGH THIS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE MORE BROAD SO THAT WILL
LIMIT LIFT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE LOWERED A BIT FROM
MODELS AS OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW
AS OF NOW AS DAY TIME CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
TOO MUCH AND IT WOULD BE HARDER TO SUSTAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE WEAKER LIFT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
SATURDAY THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT IF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE A
STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE
FRONT, IT WILL GET WARM, LIKELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY GOING TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA
SO PLACES LIKE NORTHERN CNY AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND VISE VERSA FOR THE POCONOS WHERE
HIGHS WERE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE TWIN TIERS IS WHERE THERE
IS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY SO A BROAD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS
KEPT WHILE REALITY WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE
FRONT.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH WITH THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STORMS ALONG IT. THERE WILL BE 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF SHEAR PRESENT
AND THE SHEAR VECTOR IS ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. THIS DOES LOWER
THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS BUT DOES INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
TRAINING STORMS. IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT WITH THE
FRONT, ITS POSSIBLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE SAME AREAS. HIGH RES MODELS ARE DIVERGENT ON WHETHER THE
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY OR BASICALLY REMAINS IN
THE SAME SPOT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT MOVING UNTIL A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES ALONG IT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
320 PM UPDATE...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FEATURES THE START OF A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT MOVING IN IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OUT
OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG AND
RIDING UP THE BOUNDARY. THIS LOW WILL LEAD TO A STEADIER PERIOD
OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD SATURDAY AND AS IT DOES SO, A CLOSED,
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW WILL BE FORMING THAT DRIFTS OVER THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BECOMES THE
MAIN DRIVER OF OUR WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ON SUNDAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE CLOSE BY, AND WAVES OF ENERGY
AND MOISTURE BEING DRAWN UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND THE UPPER LOW
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. PWATS RISE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TO AROUND 1.20-1.40 INCHES WITH THE
EURO AND CANADIAN KEEPING THE MOST MOISTURE-RICH AIR MORE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER ON SOUTH UNTIL SUNDAY, WHILE THE
GFS SPREADS THAT MOISTURE ALL THE WAY NORTH ACROSS THE CWA. A
GENERAL 0.5-1.00 INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH NE PA INTO THE
CATSKILLS LOOKING TO BE THE MOST FAVORED LOCATION FOR A
POTENTIAL 1.50-2.00 INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUNDER CHANCES DURING THIS TIME LOOK HIGHEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NE PA WITH MUCAPE VALUES CLIMBING ABOVE 1000
J/KG WITH 30-40 KNOTS OF SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXCEEDING 7.5 DEGREES C/KM FOR PARTS OF THAT REGION, SO THIS
WILL BEAR SOME WATCHING.
A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN AND STALLING OUT. FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY THROUGH THE SYRACUSE METRO, FINGER LAKES REGION AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO THE LOW 60S, WHILE PORTIONS OF NE PA INTO THE
SOUTHERN CATSKILLS REACH THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE A DECENT SPREAD
IN TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
PARTS OF THE WYOMING VALLEY AND DELAWARE RIVER VALLEY IN NE PA
CAN REACH THE LOW AND MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
320 PM UPDATE...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST, BUT REMAINS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA WHICH WILL
KEEP A MOIST, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE OFF OF THE ATLANTIC.
PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW KEEPING
SHOWERS CHANCES IN PLACE. THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WEDNESDAY, BUT LOOKS TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE
AREA WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY
TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE GENERALLY
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WERE
PRESENT AT MOST TERMINALS AND LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS,
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN.
TEMPOS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OMITTED FOR NOW AS THE FEW IN THE AREA WILL MISS THE TERMINALS.
RME MAY HOLD ON TO RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH 16Z WITH POTENTIAL MVFR
CIGS BUT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY VFR FROM 12Z
ONWARD WITH A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION.
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM THIS EVENING WITH PROB30S
ADDED AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THE ROUGH TIMING OF THE STORMS. AVP
MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH FOR THIS NEXT BATCH AND THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE AT SYR AND RME AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY IS IN THE
FINGER LAKES AND SOUTHERN TIER REGIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...AJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page