978
FXUS61 KBGM 021430
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN WITH THE
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL BE
COOL TO THE NORTH WITH 50S IN CENTRAL NY AND WARM TO THE SOUTH
WITH 70S IN NE PA. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THROUGH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
1020 AM UPDATE...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER, POPS AND TEMPERATURES BASED ON
THE LATEST DATA AND TRENDS. OVERALL STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM ABOUT 3-8 PM, CENTERED ACROSS CNY. SPC
CONTINUES THE MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AREAWIDE WITH THE POSSIBLE THREATS BEING
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. MLCAPE LOOKS TO REACH 800-1500
J/KG OUT AHEAD OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME HIGHS
REACH WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN SOME LOWER 80S. SURFACE DEW
POINTS HOVER IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. DEEP LAYER, 0-6KM
SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 30-40 KTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST
CAPE ON THE HRRR SOUNDINGS IS SOMEWHAT SKINNY, OWING TO THE
MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5C/KM. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON TO SEE JUST HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY THESE STORMS CAN TAP INTO.
645 AM UPDATE...
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE UPDATED TO MATCH DRYING TREND
THROUGH THE MID MORNING. PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED IN FOR TONIGHT AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HREF HINTS AT SOME CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS
WITH GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WET GROUND.
245 AM UPDATE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH.
BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS, SOME WEAK SUBSIDENCE EVIDENT BY WARMER
WATER VAPOR TEMPERATURES ON GOES EAST, WILL HELP END THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY BY THE MORNING. SOME TOPOGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS
MAY PERSIST OVER NORTHERN ONEIDA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AFTER
SUNRISE. WITH THE WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID LEVELS BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PRETTY STABLE AIR AND
WEAK LAPSE RATES UN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE SOME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
WILL BE IN THE FINGER LAKES WHERE THERE IS A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LEADING TO SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE. THOUGH IF
SOMETHING WAS ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE MID LEVEL CAPPING, THERE
IS ENOUGH SHEAR (40-50 KNOTS) TO POTENTIALLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TONIGHT WILL HAVE ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWING
THROUGH, THOUGH THIS ONE TONIGHT WILL BE MORE BROAD SO THAT WILL
LIMIT LIFT. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE LOWERED A BIT FROM
MODELS AS OVERNIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE WERE KEPT PRETTY LOW
AS OF NOW AS DAY TIME CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
TOO MUCH AND IT WOULD BE HARDER TO SUSTAIN INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH THE WEAKER LIFT WITH THIS SHORTWAVE.
SATURDAY THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT IF UNCERTAINTY WITH WHERE A
STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE
FRONT, IT WILL GET WARM, LIKELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. NORTH
OF THE FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN. THIS FRONT IS LIKELY GOING TO SET UP SOMEWHERE IN OUR CWA
SO PLACES LIKE NORTHERN CNY AND THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES WILL
LIKELY BE ON THE NORTH SIDE AND VISE VERSA FOR THE POCONOS WHERE
HIGHS WERE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S. THE TWIN TIERS IS WHERE THERE
IS THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY SO A BROAD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAS
KEPT WHILE REALITY WILL BE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT ALONG THE
FRONT.
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH WITH THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STORMS ALONG IT. THERE WILL BE 35 TO 45 KNOTS OF SHEAR PRESENT
AND THE SHEAR VECTOR IS ALIGNED WITH THE FRONT. THIS DOES LOWER
THE CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS BUT DOES INCREASE THE CHANCES OF
TRAINING STORMS. IF THERE IS LITTLE TO NO MOVEMENT WITH THE
FRONT, ITS POSSIBLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT
THE SAME AREAS. HIGH RES MODELS ARE DIVERGENT ON WHETHER THE
FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY OR BASICALLY REMAINS IN
THE SAME SPOT THROUGH THE DAY AND NOT MOVING UNTIL A WEAK
SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES ALONG IT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
310 AM UPDATE...
A STACKED, CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE PERIOD.
A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE. THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SPLIT THE CWA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT IS MODERATE AS IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW ENDS UP DEVELOPING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA FROM THE SE US. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY WELL SATURATED PROFILE WITH SHEAR
VECTORS LINING UP ALONG THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SOME TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FORTUNATELY,
PWATS DURING THIS TIME ARE IN THE 1.15 TO 1.3IN RANGE AND
CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE LIMITED BASED ON THE SATURATED PROFILES,
SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS OVER AN AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
SOUTHERN NEPA. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK PUTS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY, LINING UP
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE STACKED LOW DRIFTS TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE TO THE NW AND OUT OF THE CWA. SATURATION
DECREASES AS DRIER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL US WRAPS AROUND THE LOW
AND ADVECTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN, BUT SHOULD BE MORE LIGHT IN NATURE.
A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD AND WILL VARY
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER,
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES, TO ONEIDA COUNTY. 50S ARE EXPECTED TO
THE SE OF THIS AREA, WITH UPPER 50S IN THE WYOMING VALLEY.
SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN CNY, WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN NEPA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
THE STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
WOBBLE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE
FINALLY GETTING EJECTED TO THE NE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US. TIMING OF THE EJECTION AND TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, BUT GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HONE IN ON A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR THIS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S, WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LOWS WILL BE WARM, ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S, THANKS TO THE CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ELM BUT CLOUDS AND SUN WILL LIKELY
BURN OFF THE FOG AROUND 12Z SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THIS
UPDATE. SHOWERS AND MAY BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION INTO CNY MAINLY AFFECTING
SYR AND RME. THE PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WEAKEN
SO IMPACTS TO ITH, ELM, AND BGM ARE A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BECOME ALMOST CALM AND WITH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, IT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. ESPECIALLY IF THERE ENDS UP BEING MORE
RAINFALL IN THE EVENING THEN FORECAST. RIGHT NOW ELM IS MOST
CONFIDENT WITH FOG WITH LOWER CHANCES AT RME, BGM, AND ITH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG
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