396
FXUS61 KBGM 021931
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
331 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL TO THE
NORTH WITH 50S IN CENTRAL NY AND WARM TO THE SOUTH WITH 70S IN
NE PA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERY, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEARBY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
330 PM UPDATE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW, ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
TO SEVERE SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT ANALYSTS SHOWS AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE,
LIS AROUND -2 AND EFFECT BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS OVER THE REGION.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, ONLY AROUND 6C/KM, WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT AROUND 8C/KM. OVERALL, THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL AND ISOLATED;
AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE BEFORE 10PM THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS. SHOWERS
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER NW OF THIS FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50...FURTHER SOUTH IT REMAINS IN THE MID TO EVEN
UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT WAVE RIDES ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A ROUND OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN
THE MORNING. MODELS ARE THEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND. A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT LIKELY TO SETUP ALONG I-88 AND RTE 17 WEST TO AROUND
WAVERLY/SAYRE...SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS...WHILE NW OF THIS LINE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE MID-50S TO LOW 60S. INSTABILITY
DOES BUILD (500-1000 MLCAPE) OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO AGAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL RISK A STORM OR
TWO COULD TURN SEVERE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WEAK REMNANT MCS WAVES CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TONIGHT; IN THE MID-40S TO 50S AREAWIDE. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
JUST OVER HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
310 AM UPDATE...
A STACKED, CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN US SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER FOR THE PERIOD.
A STALLED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SIT OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY, ORIENTED FROM SW TO NE. THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO SPLIT THE CWA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT IS MODERATE AS IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE
SURFACE LOW ENDS UP DEVELOPING. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE CWA FROM THE SE US. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRETTY WELL SATURATED PROFILE WITH SHEAR
VECTORS LINING UP ALONG THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH INCREASED
CHANCES FOR SOME TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS. FORTUNATELY,
PWATS DURING THIS TIME ARE IN THE 1.15 TO 1.3IN RANGE AND
CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE LIMITED BASED ON THE SATURATED PROFILES,
SO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW. THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES IF TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OCCURS OVER AN AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. 0.5 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA AND HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
SOUTHERN NEPA. WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK PUTS MOST OF OUR
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING SUNDAY, LINING UP
WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT, THE STACKED LOW DRIFTS TO THE WEST, WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE TO THE NW AND OUT OF THE CWA. SATURATION
DECREASES AS DRIER AIR FROM THE CENTRAL US WRAPS AROUND THE LOW
AND ADVECTS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN, BUT SHOULD BE MORE LIGHT IN NATURE.
A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD AND WILL VARY
FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STALLED FRONT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S FROM THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER,
THROUGH THE FINGER LAKES, TO ONEIDA COUNTY. 50S ARE EXPECTED TO
THE SE OF THIS AREA, WITH UPPER 50S IN THE WYOMING VALLEY.
SUNDAY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S IN CNY, WITH
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN NEPA.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
THE STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER OVER
THE CWA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
WOBBLE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE
FINALLY GETTING EJECTED TO THE NE AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHERN US. TIMING OF THE EJECTION AND TRACK IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, BUT GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HONE IN ON A
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME FOR THIS. RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE LOW
IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY, WITH
LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS THE CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 60S, WHICH IS AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. LOWS WILL BE WARM, ONLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S, THANKS TO THE CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
150 PM UPDATE
VFR CONDITIONS AT OUR TAF SITES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS HOUR. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL FOCUS ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING SW TO NE NEAR SYR, RME AND ITH. THIS IS WHERE THERE IS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS.
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR TSRA AT THESE 3 SITES. FURTHER SOUTH
AT ELM AND BGM SHOWERS WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH, BUT IT
COULD BE MORE INTO THE EVENING HOURS (21Z-02Z) AND INSTABILITY
STARTS TO WANE. FOR NOW, INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR SHOWERS
HERE...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A TSRA; SO WILL AMEND TAFS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL IF NEEDED. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER
OR T'STORM AT AVP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN THE TAF HERE AT THIS TIME.
WINDS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT NW OR NEARLY CALM AND
WITH BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS, IT IS LOOKING MORE AND
MORE LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND
FOG FORMATION AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS OUR NY TERMINALS.
THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF THERE ENDS UP BEING MORE
RAINFALL IN THE EVENING THEN EXPECTED. RIGHT IT APPEARS MVFR
CIGS DEVELOP BY 03-06Z AND QUICKLY FALL TO IFR OR LOWER BETWEEN
7-10Z AT ITH/ELM/BGM AND BY 10-13Z AT SYR AND RME. VSBYS WILL
ALSO FALL WITH THE FOG/MIST; DOWN BELOW 3SM AND AT TIMES EVEN
LOWER VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE. IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD
AT RME/SYR/ITH/ELM AND BGM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY, NUDGING UP TO MVFR FUEL ALT BY 16-18Z. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WELL.
AVP STAYS SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND LIKELY VFR FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...AJG/MJM
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