945
FXUS61 KBGM 030701
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
301 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AROUND THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE COOL TO THE
NORTH WITH 50S IN CENTRAL NY AND WARM TO THE SOUTH WITH 70S IN
NE PA WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERY, UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS NEARBY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
330 PM UPDATE
MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW, ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG
TO SEVERE SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY. CURRENT ANALYSTS SHOWS AROUND 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE,
LIS AROUND -2 AND EFFECT BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS OVER THE REGION.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, ONLY AROUND 6C/KM, WHILE LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT AROUND 8C/KM. OVERALL, THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES TO LOOK MARGINAL AND ISOLATED;
AND IF IT DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE BEFORE 10PM THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR CLOSELY IN THE COMING HOURS. SHOWERS
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER NW OF THIS FRONT, WITH LOWS IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50...FURTHER SOUTH IT REMAINS IN THE MID TO EVEN
UPPER 50S OVERNIGHT.
THE NEXT WAVE RIDES ALONG THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A ROUND OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM WEST TO
EAST. THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY A STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN
THE MORNING. MODELS ARE THEN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL
BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH JUST A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AROUND. A LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS IN THE FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT LIKELY TO SETUP ALONG I-88 AND RTE 17 WEST TO AROUND
WAVERLY/SAYRE...SOUTHEAST OF THIS LINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS...WHILE NW OF THIS LINE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE STUCK IN THE MID-50S TO LOW 60S. INSTABILITY
DOES BUILD (500-1000 MLCAPE) OVER NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, SO AGAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE HERE AND THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL RISK A STORM OR
TWO COULD TURN SEVERE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
WEAK REMNANT MCS WAVES CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE VERY
SIMILAR TONIGHT; IN THE MID-40S TO 50S AREAWIDE. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OVER THE NEAR TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM
JUST OVER HALF AND INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD TROUGH WILL STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SEND MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50'S. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ONLY WORKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S AND 60'S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES DO
NOT IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 1-1.3 INCHES, KEEPING ANY FLOODING THREAT
LOW. WITH MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY RECENTLY THIS
SHOULD BE WELCOME RAINFALL. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO
SHOWING UP ON SOUNDINGS KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY
PULL EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING AROUND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERHAPS
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS A SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH SOME PATCHY CLEARING, FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ELM AND WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND THE REST OF THE NIGHT. VIS MAY IMPROVE
TOWARDS MORNING BUT THE CIGS WILL REMAIN. BGM AND ITH MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINAL AS THE CLEARING MOVES
THROUGH. THERE IS MORE CLOUDS AT RME BUT A TEMPO WITH SOME IFR
VIS WAS PUT IN BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THERE THAT THERE
WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES.
BY AROUND 12Z, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN. THIS WILL HELP
LOCK IN THE LOW IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AT ALL NY
TERMINALS. AVP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT MOST OF THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY VFR UNTIL THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND
0Z AND ODDS IF IFR OR WORSE BEGIN TO INCREASE,
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
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