688
FXUS61 KBGM 030748
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
348 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH COOL AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND CENTRAL NY AND WARM
AND SLIGHTLY MUGGY CONDITIONS IN NE PA. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE POCONOS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. COOL AND
SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
340 AM UPDATE
SOME CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG. RAIN IS
MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA, NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RAINY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RAISE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. CAPE IS LOOKING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
NEPA INTO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO GOOD WITH 45 TO 50 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITING FOR
UPDRAFT ACCELERATION AS THE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 5.5 C/KM. SOME VEERING OF THE WINDS
WITH HEIGHT ON THE FORECAST SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS GIVE POTENTIAL
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP INTO MARGINAL SUPERCELLS IN NEPA. THE
BETTER ENVIRONMENT IS JUST TO THE S IN NJ AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A WEAK TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT AS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS ARE PRETTY LOW, LESS THAN 1000M FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.
TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS CUT OFF OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER NY AND PA. THIS
WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CHANCES OF THUNDER WERE LOWERED AS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
BECOMES COMPLETELY SATURATED WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE. WAVES OF
500 MB VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH WILL BE THE BASIS OF LIFT FOR
THE SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DAY TIME HEATING ON
SUNDAY QUICKLY LEADS TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THUNDER
CHANCES WERE KEPT LOW SUNDAY AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PREVENT
ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD TROUGH WILL STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SEND MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50'S. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ONLY WORKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S AND 60'S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES DO
NOT IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 1-1.3 INCHES, KEEPING ANY FLOODING THREAT
LOW. WITH MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY RECENTLY THIS
SHOULD BE WELCOME RAINFALL. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO
SHOWING UP ON SOUNDINGS KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY
PULL EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING AROUND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERHAPS
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS A SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH SOME PATCHY CLEARING, FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ELM AND WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND THE REST OF THE NIGHT. VIS MAY IMPROVE
TOWARDS MORNING BUT THE CIGS WILL REMAIN. BGM AND ITH MAY SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOP AROUND THE TERMINAL AS THE CLEARING MOVES
THROUGH. THERE IS MORE CLOUDS AT RME BUT A TEMPO WITH SOME IFR
VIS WAS PUT IN BUT CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THERE THAT THERE
WILL BE A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES.
BY AROUND 12Z, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES IN. THIS WILL HELP
LOCK IN THE LOW IFR CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY AT ALL NY
TERMINALS. AVP WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT MOST OF THE DAY WITH
MOSTLY VFR UNTIL THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE TERMINAL AROUND
0Z AND ODDS IF IFR OR WORSE BEGIN TO INCREASE,
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
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