231
FXUS61 KBGM 031800
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONT WILL BE STALLED ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING
WITH COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS FOR THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL NY AND WARM AND SLIGHTLY MUGGY CONDITIONS IN NE PA. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
THE POCONOS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
1040 AM UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS AND POTTHUNDER FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY BASED
ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND CAMS. STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND MOVE INTO NE PA THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH THE LATEST VISIBLE LOOP SHOWING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO NE PA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN JUST HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF OUR CWA; BUT IF
MLCAPE DOES RISE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO
AROUND 40 KTS ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP. A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MONTICELLO-HONESDALE-
SCRANTON/WILKES-BARRE CORRIDOR. THE MAIN TIMING WOULD BE 3-9 PM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS.
640 AM UPDATE...
THIS AFTERNOON IS LOOKING SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR STORMS IN THE
POCONOS AS THE 6Z MODELS TRENDED TOWARDS A BIT MORE CAPE AND
THAT MATCHES SATELLITE WHERE THERE IS NOT MANY CLOUDS ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE FRONT. WITH EAST WINDS AT ELM, THE FRONT MAY
HAVE PUSHED BACK WEST A BIT AS WELL AND WILL NEED TO WATCH OBS
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF IT REMAINS WEST OR NOT.
340 AM UPDATE
SOME CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG. RAIN IS
MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA, NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
ADIRONDACKS. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE
COOL AND RAINY FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH LOW CLOUDS. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT, PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RAISE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. CAPE IS LOOKING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
NEPA INTO THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MOST
UNSTABLE CAPE. WIND SHEAR IS ALSO GOOD WITH 45 TO 50 KNOTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE LIMITING FOR
UPDRAFT ACCELERATION AS THE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 5.5 C/KM. SOME VEERING OF THE WINDS
WITH HEIGHT ON THE FORECAST SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS GIVE POTENTIAL
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP INTO MARGINAL SUPERCELLS IN NEPA. THE
BETTER ENVIRONMENT IS JUST TO THE S IN NJ AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A WEAK TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT AS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVELS ARE PRETTY LOW, LESS THAN 1000M FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY.
TONIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GETS CUT OFF OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER NY AND PA. THIS
WILL ADVECT IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
CHANCES OF THUNDER WERE LOWERED AS THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE
BECOMES COMPLETELY SATURATED WITH LITTLE TO NO CAPE. WAVES OF
500 MB VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH WILL BE THE BASIS OF LIFT FOR
THE SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DAY TIME HEATING ON
SUNDAY QUICKLY LEADS TO CONVECTIVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THUNDER
CHANCES WERE KEPT LOW SUNDAY AS THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL PREVENT
ANY MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY FROM DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A BROAD TROUGH WILL STILL IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
SLOW MOVING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO SEND MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS. CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50'S. THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ONLY WORKS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S AND 60'S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PW VALUES DO
NOT IMPRESSIVE BETWEEN 1-1.3 INCHES, KEEPING ANY FLOODING THREAT
LOW. WITH MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY RECENTLY THIS
SHOULD BE WELCOME RAINFALL. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO
SHOWING UP ON SOUNDINGS KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY
PULL EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING AROUND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK TO BE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S. HIGH PRESSURE THEN TRIES
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PERHAPS
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A FEW SHOWERS PASSING THROUGH
THURSDAY. AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS A SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A BIT FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
2 PM UPDATE
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP MVFR FUEL ALT TO IFR OR
LOWER CIG RESTRICTIONS OVER OUR NY TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CIGS LIKELY DROP TO LIFR/BELOW ALT MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG AND MIST DEVELOPING; WITH IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO LIKELY AT MOST NY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR/MVFR FUEL ALT RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE AT AVP
AROUND SUNSET INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE AVP ALSO DROPS TO IFR
OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CIGS HOLD AT IFR TO LIFR AREAWIDE
SUNDAY MORNING, MIDDAY AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. TSRA
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES, EXCEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE AT AVP
INTO THIS EVENING. NOT ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF RAIN AND
DRIZZLE AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIBALE UNDER 5 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MJM
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