065
FXUS61 KBGM 040537
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
UNSETTLED AND WET THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND
COOLER DAYTIME HIGH MAINLY IN THE 60S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND OVERHEAD BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
300 PM UPDATE
THE INITIAL LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPED OVER PIKE AND SULLIVAN
COUNTIES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE NOW SHIFTING EAST AND OUT
OF OUR AREA. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR NOW, BUT VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS PARTIAL
CLEARING OVER NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS ONCE AGAIN. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID-70S THIS
AFTERNOON; POTENTIALLY INCREASING CAPE BACK UP BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG IN THIS REGION. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP,
BASED ON THE CAMS BETWEEN ABOUT 5-10 PM THIS EVENING; A FEW
COULD ONCE AGAIN TURN STRONG OR SEVERE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. FURTHER NORTH, ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT WILL REMAIN CLOUDY, WITH DRIZZLE FOG AND
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE COOL NORTH OF THE FRONT,
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT,
WITH LOCALIZED LOW VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CNY.
OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. A DEEP, MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH A SURFACE FRONT STILL BISECTING DIRECTLY ACROSS
OUR CWA. IT APPEARS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE IN PLACE VERY
CLOSE TO WHERE IT WAS TODAY; WITH SOME SLIGHTLY MILDER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NE PA AND THE CATSKILLS WHERE IT REACHES THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, ON THE OTHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ALL
DAY. ROUNDS OF RAIN ROTATE IN FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
TRENDING LOW FOR SUNDAY, SO AT THIS TIME WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUT FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO AROUND AN INCH, OR LOCALLY HIGHER ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, AND WPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH- FLOODING...SO THIS POTENTIAL WILL
BE MONITORED CLOSELY. PWATS ARE PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN 1.3 TO 1.5
INCHES WITH GOOD,DEEP SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO CNY/NE
PA. SUNDAY NIGHT FEATURES LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY MILD LOWS IN THE 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
245 PM UPDATE:
OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OVER OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING DURING THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL DURING PRIOR DAYS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
245 PM UPDATE:
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF
AN OPEN WAVE AND START TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST. THERE WILL STILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE EARLY WEEK TIMEFRAME.
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS COULD IMPACT
THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL START A DRYING TREND. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH GRADUAL
WARMING CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLED JUST TO THE SW OF THE AREA,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LARGELY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS. AVP MAY BE SPARED THE PERSISTENT IFR
CONDITIONS AS THE WEAK SE FLOW OFF OF THE POCONOS MAY HELP KEEP
LOW CIGS FROM FORMING AND STAYING. SYR BEING ALSO IN AN AREA
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SE MAY ALSO GET SOME MVFR CIGS AT
TIMES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO MOSTLY IFR WAS KEPT THROUGH
TONIGHT. BGM AND ITH BOTH WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS BEING
AT ELEVATION SO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, LIFT CIGS LIKELY LAST ALL
DAY. ELM HAS SEEN FOG DEVELOP ALREADY AND WITH NOTHING TO MIX IT
OUT OF THE VALLEY, LIFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z. THE CIGS MAY LIFT A BIT LATE MORNING AND BRING
CONDITIONS BACK TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG
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