518
FXUS61 KBGM 040649
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
249 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
WITH FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL HELP BEGIN TO BRING IN DRIER WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
250 AM UPDATE:
CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER OHIO. THIS HAS LEAD TO THE WARM FRONT OF THE LOW
STALLING OVER OUR REGION WITH FREQUENT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
PROPAGATING ALONG IT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED
THIS MORNING BUT WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT ABOVE 500 MB, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE DAY GOES ON REGION WIDE WITH UP TO
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST NIGHT WHERE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY
AS INSTABILITY FROM DAY TIME HEATING RETURNS. MONDAY ALSO HAS
SOME CHANCES OF CLEARING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE MORE POCKETS
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS MAY HELP LEAD TO
DEEPER CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
LACK OF MEANINGFUL SHEAR, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND MID LEVEL DRY
AIR, SEVERE RISK IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
245 PM UPDATE:
OUR REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE IMPACTED BY A VERY SLOW MOVING
UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH WILL BE DRIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
OVER OUR REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD,
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING DURING THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PEAK HEATING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO
TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW RAINFALL DURING PRIOR DAYS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
245 PM UPDATE:
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY TRANSITION TO MORE OF
AN OPEN WAVE AND START TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST. THERE WILL STILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE EARLY WEEK TIMEFRAME.
IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP-AROUND SHOWERS COULD IMPACT
THE AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST, WHICH WILL START A DRYING TREND. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE LOWER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, ALONG WITH GRADUAL
WARMING CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLED JUST TO THE SW OF THE AREA,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LARGELY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS. AVP MAY BE SPARED THE PERSISTENT IFR
CONDITIONS AS THE WEAK SE FLOW OFF OF THE POCONOS MAY HELP KEEP
LOW CIGS FROM FORMING AND STAYING. SYR BEING ALSO IN AN AREA
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SE MAY ALSO GET SOME MVFR CIGS AT
TIMES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO MOSTLY IFR WAS KEPT THROUGH
TONIGHT. BGM AND ITH BOTH WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS BEING
AT ELEVATION SO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, LIFT CIGS LIKELY LAST ALL
DAY. ELM HAS SEEN FOG DEVELOP ALREADY AND WITH NOTHING TO MIX IT
OUT OF THE VALLEY, LIFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z. THE CIGS MAY LIFT A BIT LATE MORNING AND BRING
CONDITIONS BACK TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG
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