640
FXUS61 KBGM 040702
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
302 AM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
WITH FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL HELP BEGIN TO BRING IN DRIER WEATHER
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
250 AM UPDATE:
CLOUDY AND WET CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER OHIO. THIS HAS LEAD TO THE WARM FRONT OF THE LOW
STALLING OVER OUR REGION WITH FREQUENT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
PROPAGATING ALONG IT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED
THIS MORNING BUT WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT ABOVE 500 MB, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS THE DAY GOES ON REGION WIDE WITH UP TO
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. TONIGHT
WILL BE SIMILAR TO THIS PAST NIGHT WHERE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON WITH THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY BUT ONCE AGAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON MONDAY
AS INSTABILITY FROM DAY TIME HEATING RETURNS. MONDAY ALSO HAS
SOME CHANCES OF CLEARING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE MORE POCKETS
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS MAY HELP LEAD TO
DEEPER CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH THE
LACK OF MEANINGFUL SHEAR, STEEP LAPSE RATES, AND MID LEVEL DRY
AIR, SEVERE RISK IS VERY LOW.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S AND 60'S THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PW
VALUES DO NOT IMPRESSIVE AROUND AN INCH, KEEPING ANY FLOODING THREAT
LOW. WITH MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY RECENTLY THIS
SHOULD BE WELCOME RAINFALL. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO
SHOWING UP ON SOUNDINGS KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. THOUGH THIS INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED FOR A TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS HIGHEST AT THAT TIME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STILL ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE IN PLACE TO KEEP
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
NUDGE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN WITH SOME SPOTS HITTING 70 FOR HIGHS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THEN LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING COULD
HAVE LOWS AROUND 40.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STALLED JUST TO THE SW OF THE AREA,
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE SE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LARGELY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AT ALL TERMINALS. AVP MAY BE SPARED THE PERSISTENT IFR
CONDITIONS AS THE WEAK SE FLOW OFF OF THE POCONOS MAY HELP KEEP
LOW CIGS FROM FORMING AND STAYING. SYR BEING ALSO IN AN AREA
WITH HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SE MAY ALSO GET SOME MVFR CIGS AT
TIMES BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO MOSTLY IFR WAS KEPT THROUGH
TONIGHT. BGM AND ITH BOTH WILL LIKELY HAVE THE LOWEST CIGS BEING
AT ELEVATION SO SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, LIFT CIGS LIKELY LAST ALL
DAY. ELM HAS SEEN FOG DEVELOP ALREADY AND WITH NOTHING TO MIX IT
OUT OF THE VALLEY, LIFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z. THE CIGS MAY LIFT A BIT LATE MORNING AND BRING
CONDITIONS BACK TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...INCREASING THREAT OF RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
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