672
FXUS61 KBGM 041824
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
224 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY DRY OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
215 PM UPDATE
UNSETTLED, WET WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED T'STORMS IS NOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE AREA, AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED NOW THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
OUTSIDE OF THE STEADY RAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS WPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING; THE RAIN GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND TAPERS OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE WILL AGAIN
BE AREAS OF FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
CURRENT TRENDS FOR MONDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING; INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR T'STORMS AS TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN
TODAY; GIVING MORE INSTABILITY. A CORRIDOR OF 500-800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPS ALONG AND WEST OF AN AUBURN--BINGHAMTON AND
SCRANTON LINE. THERE WILL ALSO BE 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED, AND SOME COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY REACH THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S...ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, THIS IS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM TIME TO TIME.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS. WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S AND 60'S THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. PW
VALUES DO NOT IMPRESSIVE AROUND AN INCH, KEEPING ANY FLOODING THREAT
LOW. WITH MOST OF THE AREA AT LEAST ABNORMALLY DRY RECENTLY THIS
SHOULD BE WELCOME RAINFALL. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS ALSO
SHOWING UP ON SOUNDINGS KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR A THUNDERSTORM
OR TWO DURING MOST OF THIS TIMEFRAME. THOUGH THIS INSTABILITY MAY
BECOME MORE SURFACE BASED FOR A TIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS HIGHEST AT THAT TIME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. STILL ENOUGH OF AN INFLUENCE IN PLACE TO KEEP
THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
NUDGE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WELL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BREAKS OF
SUN WITH SOME SPOTS HITTING 70 FOR HIGHS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THEN LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A FEW LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING COULD
HAVE LOWS AROUND 40.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
220 PM UPDATE
WIDESPREAD MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE TO IFR RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AREAS OF FOG (ITH/BGM) AND PERIODS OF
RAIN EXPECTED. STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH VBSYS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-5SM IN THE RAIN, AND
LOWER AT TIMES WITH THE FOG. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ESPECIALLY INVOF AVP WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
WAS ADDED UNTIL EARL EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR BGM, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER, SO DID NOT ADD INTO THE
TAF HERE AT THIS TIME.
CIGS DO NOT IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME UP TO MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE AT MOST OF OUR TAF
SITES BY 16-18Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, TURNING MORE EASTERLY AND
REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON EAST WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 8-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MJM
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