892
FXUS61 KBGM 041928
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
328 PM EDT SUN MAY 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY DRY OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
215 PM UPDATE
UNSETTLED, WET WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED T'STORMS IS NOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE AREA, AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED NOW THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
OUTSIDE OF THE STEADY RAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS WPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING; THE RAIN GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND TAPERS OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE WILL AGAIN
BE AREAS OF FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
CURRENT TRENDS FOR MONDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING; INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR T'STORMS AS TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN
TODAY; GIVING MORE INSTABILITY. A CORRIDOR OF 500-800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPS ALONG AND WEST OF AN AUBURN--BINGHAMTON AND
SCRANTON LINE. THERE WILL ALSO BE 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED, AND SOME COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY REACH THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S...ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, THIS IS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM TIME TO TIME.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
325 PM UPDATE:
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF OUR AREA THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING
OUR WEATHER THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL SPEED UP A BIT AND GET MUCH
CLOSER TO OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WITH A STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING IN MOIST ATLANTIC MOISTURE, COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS (AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS) WILL BE MORE
WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA/CLOSER TO THE COAST.
PWATS ARE NOT NECESSARILY IMPRESSIVE (GENERALLY AROUND ONE
INCH), SO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED FLOODING ISSUES DUE TO THE
WET PATTERN WE ARE CURRENTLY IN.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND START TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST. THERE
WILL STILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EAST OF I-81), BUT OVERALL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE EARLY WEEK
TIMEFRAME.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
325 PM UPDATE:
WHILE THE LONG TERM PERIOD INITIALLY LOOKED TO FEATURE A DRYING
TREND (WHICH IS STILL ON THE TABLE), LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A SECOND UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING DOWN
INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WOULD ACTUALLY
RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN. IN FACT,
SOME GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE 12Z ECMWF KEEPS SHOWERS AROUND ALL THE
WAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BEFORE DRYING OUT ON SUNDAY. FOR NOW,
OPTING TO REMAIN WITH THE NBM POPS DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY, WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW-END CHANCE
POPS FOR THURSDAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, IF THE CURRENT
TREND CONTINUES, POPS MAY NEED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED
WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
220 PM UPDATE
WIDESPREAD MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE TO IFR RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AREAS OF FOG (ITH/BGM) AND PERIODS OF
RAIN EXPECTED. STEADY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH VBSYS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-5SM IN THE RAIN, AND
LOWER AT TIMES WITH THE FOG. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ESPECIALLY INVOF AVP WHERE A TEMPO GROUP
WAS ADDED UNTIL EARL EVENING. A THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR BGM, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER, SO DID NOT ADD INTO THE
TAF HERE AT THIS TIME.
CIGS DO NOT IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHEN THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO COME UP TO MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE AT MOST OF OUR TAF
SITES BY 16-18Z.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, TURNING MORE EASTERLY AND
REMAINING LIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON EAST WINDS INCREASE BETWEEN 8-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MJM
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