056
FXUS61 KBGM 050706
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
306 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY DRY OUT BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
215 PM UPDATE
UNSETTLED, WET WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY MOVES EAST TOWARD THE
REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
EMBEDDED T'STORMS IS NOW MOVING NORTH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
THE AREA, AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED NOW THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE, AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
OUTSIDE OF THE STEADY RAIN. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AS WPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
THE STEADY RAIN LIFTS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING; THE RAIN GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND TAPERS OFF TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE WILL AGAIN
BE AREAS OF FOG, SOME LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
CURRENT TRENDS FOR MONDAY CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE IN THE WAY TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING; INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TO SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A
BETTER CHANCE FOR T'STORMS AS TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER THAN
TODAY; GIVING MORE INSTABILITY. A CORRIDOR OF 500-800 J/KG OF
MLCAPE DEVELOPS ALONG AND WEST OF AN AUBURN--BINGHAMTON AND
SCRANTON LINE. THERE WILL ALSO BE 20-25 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED, AND SOME COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS.
HIGHS ON MONDAY REACH THE MID-60S TO LOWER 70S...ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, THIS IS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SOME PARTIAL BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST FROM TIME TO TIME.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NY. THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT WITHE DEEPER MOISTURE HEADING INTO NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S
AND 60'S. ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THEN LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY SHOULD GET TO AROUND 60.
MORE UNCERTAINITY IS PRESENT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WINDOW. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FORM A NOR'EASTER WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
FROM THE EPS FOR THIS. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF OTHER MODELING AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
WHICH IS FAVORED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. WITH THAT SAID, POPS
ARE CURRENTLY FAIRLY LOW BUT MAY TREND HIGHER IF MORE DATA
SHIFTS TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
ANY CLOUDS OR RAINFALL.
REGARDLESS OF THE ABOVE OUTCOMES CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS FOR A DECENT MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVP IS SEEING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE POCONOS WHICH
IS HELPING KEEP CIGS VFR AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST PF
THE NIGHT. BGM WILL SEE LOW CIGS DUE TO THE ELEVATION THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS
THERE IS A BIT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
ELM HAS SOME CLEAR SKIES MOVING TOWARDS THE TERMINAL SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. ITH WILL SEE
THE WIND INCREASE OUT OF THE SE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WITH IMPROVED CIGS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. SYR AND RME
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH THE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT DO MUCH TO IMPROVE THE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CLOUD DECK SO NO THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR
NOW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
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