990
FXUS61 KBGM 050720
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
320 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
315 AM UPDATE
ITS GROUNDHOG DAY AGAIN WITH A STALLED UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL
SITTING OVER OHIO THROUGH THE NEAR TERM LEADING TO CONTINUED
CLOUDS WITH FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS. THERE IS BETTER CHANCES AT
SEEING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SUNSHINE TODAY AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME WITH THE LOW HAS MOVED EAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS IT QUITE WELL WITH A DRY SLOT WORKING ITS WAY
INTO WEST CENTRAL NY/PA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL QUITE
PLENTIFUL AND THE LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE DRY LAYER IS RIGHT
AROUND 6C/KM SO IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH HEATING TODAY TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT ANY SUNSHINE
WILL BE SELF DESTRUCTIVE AND NOT LAST LONG. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WERE INCREASED THIS AFTERNOON AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE
FINGER LAKES INTO NEPA WERE INDICATING 400-600 J/KG OF CAPE. THE
CATSKILLS INTO EASTERN CNY WILL STILL SEE THICKER CLOUDS SO
DESTABILIZATION IS NOT AS LIKELY. HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AND FAVORABLE FLOW FOR OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS IN
THE CATSKILLS AND POCONOS AFTER OVER AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY,
THE REGION WAS PUT UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
RAIN RATES IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS OF AROUND 8000 FEET WILL SUPPORT RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR. IF ANY SHOWER CAN GET ANCHORED TO TERRAIN LIKE
THEY DID YESTERDAY, THERE IS A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FINGER LAKES DOWN
INTO THE WESTERN REGION OF THE TWIN TIERS OF NY/PA, THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE AT AN ORGANIZED STORM. 0-6 KM SHEAR IS UP AROUND
30 KNOTS AND WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT, IF A CORE CAN GET TALL, DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO IT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MICROBURST. WEST OF THE REGION IS A BETTER ENVIRONMENT AS THERE
IS BETTER CHANCES OF CLEARING AND INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BUT IF
THE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR FOR LONGER IN OUR AREA, THE SEVERE RISK
WILL INCREASE.
TOMORROW IS NOT LOOKING TOO MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EAST FASTER SO WITH
500 MB HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT, LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERE GET TO 6 TO 7 C/KM IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS LEADS TO
MUCH BETTER INSTABILITY, WITH HREF MEANS NEAR 1000 J/KG AND MAX
VALUES UP AROUND 1500 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. 0-6 KM SHEAR
ALSO LOOKS BETTER TOMORROW WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 35 TO 45
KNOTS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THAT AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-81 SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH SUN WITH THE DRY SLOT
ALOFT TO DEVELOP THAT INSTABILITY AND LOSE THE CAPPING INVERSION
LATER IN THE DAY. HODOGRAPHS HAVE A BIT OF VEERING WITH HEIGHT
BUT ARE MOSTLY STRAIT. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ATTEMPTS AT
SUPERCELLS IF CELLS CAN REMAIN DISCREET (THOUGH DEVELOPING A
STRONG ENOUGH MESOCYCLONES FOR A TORNADO IS UNLIKELY). FREEZING
LEVELS WILL BE FALLING (STARTS NEAR 10K FEET AND FALLS TO 7K
FEET) WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN AND DRY AIR FROM 700 MB
TO 500 MB MEANS THAT HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NY. THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT WITHE DEEPER MOISTURE HEADING INTO NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S
AND 60'S. ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THEN LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY SHOULD GET TO AROUND 60.
MORE UNCERTAINITY IS PRESENT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WINDOW. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FORM A NOR'EASTER WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
FROM THE EPS FOR THIS. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF OTHER MODELING AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
WHICH IS FAVORED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. WITH THAT SAID, POPS
ARE CURRENTLY FAIRLY LOW BUT MAY TREND HIGHER IF MORE DATA
SHIFTS TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
ANY CLOUDS OR RAINFALL.
REGARDLESS OF THE ABOVE OUTCOMES CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS FOR A DECENT MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW STRATUS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AVP IS SEEING SOME DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE POCONOS WHICH
IS HELPING KEEP CIGS VFR AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MOST PF
THE NIGHT. BGM WILL SEE LOW CIGS DUE TO THE ELEVATION THROUGH
THE NIGHT BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY AS
THERE IS A BIT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX IN AT TIMES.
ELM HAS SOME CLEAR SKIES MOVING TOWARDS THE TERMINAL SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. ITH WILL SEE
THE WIND INCREASE OUT OF THE SE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT
WITH IMPROVED CIGS COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS. SYR AND RME
WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS THOUGH THE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL NOT DO MUCH TO IMPROVE THE BORDERLINE IFR/MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH
COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AND IS BASED ON HOW MUCH SUN CAN BREAK
THROUGH THE CLOUD DECK SO NO THUNDER WAS ADDED TO THE TAFS FOR
NOW.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG
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