120
FXUS61 KBGM 051825
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
225 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
225 PM UPDATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF MLCAPE
OBSERVED WEST OF I-81, AND LIS DOWN TO AROUND -1. THIS COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER,
FINGER LAKES AND/OR THE WYOMING VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND
SUNSET. OTHERWISE, AND AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL ROTATE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CATSKILLS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
THE RAIN COMING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH; THEREFORE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE OVERLY EXCESSIVE. WITH THAT SAID, IF ANY STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR T'STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...CONSIDERING THE
RECENT RAIN AND WET SOIL ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HERE. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR REGIONAL RADAR AND CAMS TRENDS CLOSELY IN THE COMING
HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG, MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WANES A BIT, BUT THIS ALLOWS
FOR MORE INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MID-70S OVER THE AREA, ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO REACH 500-1000 J/KG, ESPECIALLY
WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. LIS MAY REACH -3 TO -5 AND DEEP LAYER
0-6KM WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH PWATS STILL HOVERING ABOVE 1" THERE COULD ALSO BE LOCALIZE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUES. SPC DOES
HAVE MOST OF OUR CWA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY START TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO TRACK OVER WESTERN NY. THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BUT WITHE DEEPER MOISTURE HEADING INTO NEW ENGLAND. FAIRLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 50'S
AND 60'S. ADDITIONAL QPF LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THEN LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. STILL MOST LOCATIONS
THURSDAY SHOULD GET TO AROUND 60.
MORE UNCERTAINITY IS PRESENT IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WINDOW. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAVE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
DIG INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FORM A NOR'EASTER WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME ENSEMBLE SUPPORT
FROM THE EPS FOR THIS. HOWEVER, THE BULK OF OTHER MODELING AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN
WHICH IS FAVORED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. WITH THAT SAID, POPS
ARE CURRENTLY FAIRLY LOW BUT MAY TREND HIGHER IF MORE DATA
SHIFTS TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
ANY CLOUDS OR RAINFALL.
REGARDLESS OF THE ABOVE OUTCOMES CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH
ENOUGH CLEARING OCCURS FOR A DECENT MOTHERS DAY ON SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
GENERALLY MVFR TO MVFR FUEL ALTERNATE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWERS CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE, WITH SOME IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT BGM AND AVP
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE THE INCREASING ESE WINDS
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY ABOVE IFR LEVELS. A
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR OR INVOF ELM THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, AS INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST IN THIS REGION. FOG
WILL NOT BE AS PREVALENT TONIGHT AS THE EAST WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT; ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE
POCKETS OF MVFR MIST AROUND. FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
FACING SLOPES OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS, AWAY FROM OUR TAF
SITES.
CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT AND MAY EVEN SCATTER OUT LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH RENEWED RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE AREA UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE MODERATE
TO HIGH.
FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
SATURDAY...A CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS, AND OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...MJM
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