795
FXUS61 KBGM 060537
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
137 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
FREQUENT RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO END THE WORK WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN. HIGH
PRESSURE AND A DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
WITH THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE, UPDATED POPS A BIT BASED ON MESOSCALE
MODEL TRENDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN IS WEST OF I-81 WHERE ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO
CLIP PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXTENDED OUT AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING
IN STEUBEN COUNTY GIVEN REPORTS OF A FEW ROADS CLOSED AND LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS INCOMING.
225 PM UPDATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. INSTABILITY IS INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED JOULES OF MLCAPE
OBSERVED WEST OF I-81, AND LIS DOWN TO AROUND -1. THIS COULD BE
JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER,
FINGER LAKES AND/OR THE WYOMING VALLEY BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND
SUNSET. OTHERWISE, AND AREA OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL ROTATE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CATSKILLS AND
MOHAWK VALLEY REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
THE RAIN COMING IN OFF THE ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH; THEREFORE RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE OVERLY EXCESSIVE. WITH THAT SAID, IF ANY STRONGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR T'STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA
THERE COULD BE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ISSUES...CONSIDERING THE
RECENT RAIN AND WET SOIL ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HERE. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON ANY FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR REGIONAL RADAR AND CAMS TRENDS CLOSELY IN THE COMING
HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE PATCHY FOG, MOSTLY CLOUDY AND MILD
CONDITIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
DEEPER MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WANES A BIT, BUT THIS ALLOWS
FOR MORE INSTABILITY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 60S TO
MID-70S OVER THE AREA, ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. MLCAPE IS FORECAST TO REACH 500-1000 J/KG, ESPECIALLY
WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE AND MORE
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. LIS MAY REACH -3 TO -5 AND DEEP LAYER
0-6KM WIND SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH PWATS STILL HOVERING ABOVE 1" THERE COULD ALSO BE LOCALIZE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUES. SPC DOES
HAVE MOST OF OUR CWA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AS
WELL, WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
410 PM UPDATE:
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND START TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST. SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-81 AND DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, BUT A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THURSDAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY,
BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN
THURSDAY NIGHT, A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
START TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL START TO ADVECT MORE MOISTURE IN
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS. AS A RESULT,
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
410 PM UPDATE:
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
INTO SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ONE AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR EAST THIS SYSTEM TRACKS, WHICH INTRODUCES
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE STEADIER RAINFALL
GETS. WITH THIS UPDATE, SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP POPS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-81. POPS WERE RAISED A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE NBM AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR MOTHER'S DAY, WHICH WILL FINALLY
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED THOUGH SOME VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN IDEAL. THE VARIABILITY WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO
SOME SHOWERS WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT CEILINGS BUT REDUCE
VISIBILITIES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS. KBGM SHOULD STAY IFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. CEILINGS MAY STILL LOWER INTO THE IFR
RANGE FOR KITH,KELM AND KAVP AS WELL AROUND 09-14Z FOR A TIME.
CEILINGS LOOK TO STAY MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 17-22Z TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW,
CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT... RESTRICTIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
SATURDAY...A CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS, AND OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MWG
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