360
FXUS61 KBGM 060739
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
339 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY THAT FORMS A LOW ON THE COAST FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEEPING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THIS
MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIERS ALONG WITH SOME PARTS OF NE PA.
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT ENOUGH TO WHERE THE THIS BAND OF
SEMI-TRAINING SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN A FEW REPORTS OF MINOR
FLOODING. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN.
MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ADVERTISE A BREAK FOR THE MID AND LATE
MORNING PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING. SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH UPWARDS OF 500
J/KG CAPE MODELED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND
DECENT SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
UNCERTAINITY OF COVERAGE IS STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS WORDING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THE ODD SOUTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SOME TRAINING POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOW NATURE OF THE
FRONT. WITH PW VALUES NEAR AN INCH, HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
FLOODING LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE A LOCALIZED ISSUE WHERE
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR THAT OCCUR LOOKS TO BE IN THE FINGER LAKES AND TWIN
TIERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 50. CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING
OUT OF THE 60'S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
410 PM UPDATE:
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY TRANSITION TO
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AND START TO KICK OUT TO THE EAST. SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-81 AND DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO BE LESS COMPARED TO TUESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. CONDITIONS START TO DRY OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, BUT A FEW
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY WILL BE A COOLER DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. THURSDAY WILL BE A MAINLY DRY DAY,
BUT ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA MAY RESULT IN A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN
THURSDAY NIGHT, A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
START TO DEVELOP, WHICH WILL START TO ADVECT MORE MOISTURE IN
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE POCONOS-CATSKILLS. AS A RESULT,
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE IN THE NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
410 PM UPDATE:
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN SEEING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY EVEN
INTO SATURDAY AS A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE ONE AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW FAR EAST THIS SYSTEM TRACKS, WHICH INTRODUCES
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE STEADIER RAINFALL
GETS. WITH THIS UPDATE, SIGNIFICANTLY BUMPED UP POPS,
ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-81. POPS WERE RAISED A BIT HIGHER
THAN THE NBM AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE THEN FINALLY WORKS ITS WAY
INTO THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR MOTHER'S DAY, WHICH WILL FINALLY
BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED THOUGH SOME VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN IDEAL. THE VARIABILITY WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO
SOME SHOWERS WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT CEILINGS BUT REDUCE
VISIBILITIES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS. KBGM SHOULD STAY IFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. CEILINGS MAY STILL LOWER INTO THE IFR
RANGE FOR KITH,KELM AND KAVP AS WELL AROUND 09-14Z FOR A TIME.
CEILINGS LOOK TO STAY MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 17-22Z TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW,
CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT... RESTRICTIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
SATURDAY...A CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS, AND OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MWG
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