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FXUS61 KBGM 060756
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
356 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY THAT FORMS A LOW ON THE COAST FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEEPING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THIS
MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIERS ALONG WITH SOME PARTS OF NE PA.
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT ENOUGH TO WHERE THE THIS BAND OF
SEMI-TRAINING SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN A FEW REPORTS OF MINOR
FLOODING. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN.
MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ADVERTISE A BREAK FOR THE MID AND LATE
MORNING PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING. SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH UPWARDS OF 500
J/KG CAPE MODELED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND
DECENT SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
UNCERTAINITY OF COVERAGE IS STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS WORDING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THE ODD SOUTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SOME TRAINING POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOW NATURE OF THE
FRONT. WITH PW VALUES NEAR AN INCH, HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
FLOODING LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE A LOCALIZED ISSUE WHERE
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR THAT OCCUR LOOKS TO BE IN THE FINGER LAKES AND TWIN
TIERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 50. CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING
OUT OF THE 60'S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE...
THE CUTOFF LOW THAT HAS BEEN CAUSING ALL THE RAIN OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS WILL FINALLY EJECT TO THE NE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE GET SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT FROM NW WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. THESE NW WINDS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO CNY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WYOMING VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID
50S AS THE FRONT CURRENTLY DOES NOT LOOK TO MAKE IT THAT FAR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG INTO THE GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NORTH ON THURSDAY, SLOWLY SLIDING EAST AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH A CUT OFF LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL US SOMETIME THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A
RAPID DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH AS THE SUB-TROPICAL JET SLIDES
NORTH AND PHASES WITH A WEAK POLAR JET. FROM HERE, THE FORECAST
GETS MUDDLED AS GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN THE PHASING OF THE JET AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IN TO THE EASTERN US THE CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN RELATION TO THIS CUTOFF LOW, AND ITS
POSITIONING WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE WEATHER ACROSS OUR
REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENT THINKING HAS THE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AS THE UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF DIGS
INTO PA/WV. THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PIVOTS TO MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SLIDES EAST
INTO THE NJ AREA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOW IS PRETTY WELL
STACKED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE FORECASTED TRACK AND
SPEED OF THE LOW WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE CWA FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES AS THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL AS MOSTLY NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S FOR MOST,
WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHERN FINGER LAKES POSSIBLE, AND . MID
60S IN THE WYOMING VALLEY. FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE IN THE 50S FOR
EVERYONE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE COOL, WITH 40S FOR MOST. A FEW POCKETS OF UPPER 30S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORMALLY COLDER SPOTS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
345 AM UPDATE...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE NE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A QUICK REX BLOCK WILL FORM THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AS A DEEP
CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
BRINGS A MUCH NEEDED PERIOD OF CALM, DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
EXPECTED THOUGH SOME VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN IDEAL. THE VARIABILITY WILL LIKELY BE DUE TO
SOME SHOWERS WHICH WILL TEMPORARILY LIFT CEILINGS BUT REDUCE
VISIBILITIES FOR BRIEF INTERVALS. KBGM SHOULD STAY IFR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT THOUGH. CEILINGS MAY STILL LOWER INTO THE IFR
RANGE FOR KITH,KELM AND KAVP AS WELL AROUND 09-14Z FOR A TIME.
CEILINGS LOOK TO STAY MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 17-22Z TIMEFRAME. FOR NOW,
CONTINUED TO LEAVE THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING FOR ALL LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT... RESTRICTIONS WITH LINGERING SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
SATURDAY...A CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS, AND OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MWG
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