932
FXUS61 KBGM 061622
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1222 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY THAT FORMS A LOW ON THE COAST FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY KEEPING CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
1130 AM UPDATE
**UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF CENTRAL NY AND THE
NORTHERN TIER OF NE PA ALSO**
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SLIDING EAST FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING. OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL ROTATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MLCAPE LOOKS TO REACH 600-1000 J/KG
AS BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR, STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING THE DESTABILZATION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS SHOW
CLOSE TO 50 KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH EVEN SOME LOW LEVEL SHEAR OF 15-20 KTS AND A STRONG BACKING
TO THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BELOW 1 KM AGL. PWATS ARE A BIT LOWER
TODAY, AROUND 1", BUT THE CONVECTIVE COMPONENT TO THE RAINFALL,
ALONG WITH VERY WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND HIGH STREAM FLOWS
INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR A FLOOD WATCH TO BE ISSUED ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS PIVOT AND TRANSITION TO STEADY/HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT UNDER THE 700MB LOW CENTER. EXPECT A GENERAL 0.50 TO
1.50 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES + POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH WITH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN HEAVIER
RAINFALL ACROSS AREAS CURRENTLY NOT UNDER A WATCH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
UPDATED POPS AND QPF A BIT WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE. OTHERWISE,
FORECAST ON TRACK.
AN OCCLUDING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE REGION TODAY WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIFTED ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION. THIS
MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD SLOWLY ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF
THE FINGER LAKES AND TWIN TIERS ALONG WITH SOME PARTS OF NE PA.
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT TOO HIGH BUT ENOUGH TO WHERE THE THIS BAND OF
SEMI-TRAINING SHOWERS COULD RESULT IN A FEW REPORTS OF MINOR
FLOODING. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD GET AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN.
MOST OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ADVERTISE A BREAK FOR THE MID AND LATE
MORNING PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES INTO THE
EVENING. SOME DESTABILIZATION SHOULD TAKE PLACE WITH UPWARDS OF 500
J/KG CAPE MODELED THIS AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND
DECENT SHEAR. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
UNCERTAINITY OF COVERAGE IS STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS WORDING OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD STILL CONTINUE THE ODD SOUTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION WITH SOME TRAINING POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SLOW NATURE OF THE
FRONT. WITH PW VALUES NEAR AN INCH, HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.
FLOODING LIKE THE PAST FEW DAYS LOOKS TO BE A LOCALIZED ISSUE WHERE
MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR THAT OCCUR LOOKS TO BE IN THE FINGER LAKES AND TWIN
TIERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD GET TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS. COOLER AIR THEN
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 50. CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THE SURFACE LOW WEDNESDAY SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING
OUT OF THE 60'S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
1215 PM UPDATE...
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL DIG AS IT SWINGS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF IT, SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WEAKER WAVES RIDE THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE ARE SHOWING FAIRLY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS NEPA AND THE CATSKILLS, THOUGH
THERE WOULD BE ENOUGH OF BOTH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG THURSDAY NIGHT AND AS IT DOES, A STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WHILE THERE DOES REMAIN SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING, MOST GUIDANCE FAVOR THE
LOW'S CENTER SWINGING AROUND THE REGION JUST TO THE SOUTH AND
THEN HUGGING THE COAST TIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTH FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE PWATS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANOMALY HIGH,
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SATURATED LEADING UP TO THE END
OF THE WEEK. ANY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS OF LOCALIZED RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT LATE FRIDAY, BUT INSTABILITY IS QUITE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOLER THAN NORMAL AS HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES MAY STRUGGLE
TO REACH THE 50S ON THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE 30S AND 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
1215 PM UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION REMAINS VALID AS LITTLE HAS
CHANGED WITH THE FORECAST. LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY, THE WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY,
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES OFF
TO THE NE.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A QUICK REX BLOCK WILL FORM THIS
WEEKEND, BRINGING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION AS A DEEP
CUTOFF LOW SPINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
BRINGS A MUCH NEEDED PERIOD OF CALM, DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH TODAY. CEILING RESTRICTIONS MAY
LIFT FOR A TIME LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
18-22Z WINDOW AND MOVE SOUTH TO NORTH OVER MOST TAF SITES. USED
TEMPO GROUPS SINCE THE DURATION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM WOULD LIKELY
BE AN HOUR OR SO AT MOST.
ADDITIONAL MVFR CEILINGS BUILD BACK IN TONIGHT WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS FOR MOST TAF SITES. WHILE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO MORE SOUTHERLY THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE AROUND WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CONFIDENCE MODERATE TO HIGH.
FRIDAY...RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY WITH ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE MODERATE.
SATURDAY...A CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS, AND OCCASIONAL
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE LOW.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038-039.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ040.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-
036-044-045-055-056.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ046-057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL/JTC
AVIATION...MWG
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