244
FXUS61 KBGM 230601
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
201 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF OUR AREA WILL
BRING PERIODS OF RAIN, CLOUDS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR
AVERAGE LEVELS BY MEMORIAL DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
730 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT TO MAKE SURE
EVERYWHERE WAS AT LEAST 25% AND CHANCE WORDING TO COVERAGE
RATHER THAN UNCERTAINTY. THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND ALL NIGHT
THOUGH WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GETTING MORE AND MORE STACKED,
COVERAGE WILL BECOME LESS AND LESS THROUGH THE NIGHT. COVERAGE
INCREASES TOMORROW WITH DAY TIME HEATING AND SOME WEAK, SHALLOW
INSTABILITY.
330 PM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATES OVER THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW
WILL ALLOW STEADY RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES 2-3 DEGREES C, HIGHS HAVE
STRUGGLED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THIS AFTERNOON. WE
HAVE THE CHANCE TO BREAK PREVIOUS RECORDS FOR LOWEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE. BINGHAMTON'S LOWEST MAX TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 22ND IS
47 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2006, SYRACUSE'S RECORD LOW MAX IS 51
DEGREES ALSO SET IN 2006 AND AVOCA'S RECORD LOW MAX IS 50
DEGREES SET BACK IN 1909. DESPITE HAVING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH QPF AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT, MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE AMOUNTS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH THIS AFTERNOON.
A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NJ COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE, BUT OUR REGION WILL BE
PLACED INBETWEEN THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES WITH A DECREASE IN
SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO A FEW
HUNDRETHS IS EXPECTED. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL FEATURES MERGE BY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
EAST. THIS PLACES OUR REGION IN STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
WITH LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS EXPECTED ALONG WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE.
THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS WELL WITH
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED. SIMILAR
PATTERN CONTINUES IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD KEEPING
SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS
AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY AFTERNOON. COOL
CONDITIONS CARRY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS RETURNING
TO THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE REGION. FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW
AS RAINFALL RATES AND AMOUNTS ARE FAR BELOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
135 PM UPDATE...
A CLOSED UPPER LOW STALLED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING MOISTURE AND COOL CONDITIONS TO CNY AND NEPA INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER LINGERING INTO SUNDAY. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT SUNDAY WILL FEATURE AT LEAST MORE TIMES OF DRIER
WEATHER THAN SATURDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD, BUT SOME
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND A KICKER SHORT WAVE WILL SPARK MORE
SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL IN THIS PATTERN WITH 50S EXPECTED SATURDAY AND A BETTER
SHOT AT 60S ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
135 PM UPDATE...
MEMORIAL DAY LOOKS TO BE ONE OF THE BETTER DAYS OF THE WEEK WITH A
GENERALLY DRY DAY IN THE OFFING WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.
BLENDED GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE
BECOMES VERY LOW ON TUESDAY WITH MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT ON A WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. NBM GUIDANCE FAVORS THE WETTER
SOLUTION SPREADING ACROSS NEPA AND CNY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS ALL BUT
THE NEPA COUNTIES AS MAINLY DRY. COUPLE THIS WITH ANOTHER DEEP
TROUGH FORMING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO GET US BACK INTO ANOTHER UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND UNSEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND LIKELY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ANOTHER FORECAST PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
TONIGHT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONSISTENT IN THE MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE GET WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF
THE WNW ACROSS THE REGION. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
BGM INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP
LIFT CEILINGS TO JUST ABOVE IFR, BUT RAIN SHOWERS WITH NW FLOW
COULD KEEP CEILINGS HOVERING AT IFR/FUEL ALT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ITH SHOULD ALSO BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF IFR
TONIGHT AS SHOWERS PASS ACROSS THE AREA. MORE CONSISTENT IFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MORNING AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN
AND NW FLOW PUSHES ENHANCED LAKE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SYR AND
RME WILL BE MVFR/FUEL ALT TONIGHT BUT FALL TO IFR THIS MORNING
AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE IN. FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY IN THE LATE
MORNING, WHICH WILL KEEP CEILINGS IFR/LIFR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
ELM SHOULD REMAIN MVFR/FUEL ALT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SOME RAIN
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL. AVP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN
AND IS NOT MODIFIED BY LAKE MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WET PATTERN PERSISTS OVER CNY WITH
RESTRICTIONS AND WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ES/JTC
NEAR TERM...AJG/ES/JTC
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...JTC
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