802
FXUS61 KBGM 231045
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER DAY OF RAIN SHOWERS, CLOUDS AND MUCH COLDER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY MEMORIAL DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
630 AM UPDATE...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, AS EXPECTED. THIS COVERAGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
330 AM UPDATE...
COOL AND DAMP WEATHER CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE TROUGH
PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED OVER WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO CONTINUES TO SPIN IN PLACE.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SURFACE AND MID LEVEL LOW SLIDING EASTWARD
THIS MORNING AND MERGING WITH A STRONGER LOW OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. AS THIS OCCURS, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE,
COMBINED WITH NW FLOW PROVIDING ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM THE LAKES
AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD TROUGH PATTERN, WILL
KICK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. MOST OF THE PERSISTENT RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS REACHING INTO NEPA. QPF
AMOUNTS WERE BUMPED UP FROM NBM GUIDANCE AS IT WAS NOT PICKING
UP ON THE ENHANCED MOISTURE PROVIDED BY THE NW FLOW OFF THE
LAKES. UP TO 0.50IN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
FINGER LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONEIDA AND THE NORTHERN CATSKILLS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SHOWERS BECOME MORE SCATTERED FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WEAKENS. NW FLOW, ABUNDANT
MOISTURE, AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE LIFT WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO REMAIN ACROSS CNY THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD FOR THE END OF MAY, WITH HIGHS TODAY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS, WITH A FEW VALLEY SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
310 AM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS TO BE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AN EXITING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WILL
DETERMINE IF THE DREARY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINTAIN THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF
PROGRESSES THE LOW AWAY, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MITIGATING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
GENERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE UPDATED MODEL
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT WARMER TREND IS
EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S SUNDAY TO THE MID 60S/LOW 70S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
310 AM UPDATE...
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD;
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT VERY UNORGANIZED WEATHER. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
GENERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RAIN SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ACROSS CNY AS THE MORNING
PROGRESSES. WNW FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE AM/EARLY
PM, PUSHING CEILINGS INTO IFR TERRITORY FOR ITH, SYR AND RME
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. BGM WILL STAY IFR THIS
MORNING, BUT SOME DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
TWIN TIERS LATER THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD LIFT CEILINGS TO
MVFR. IF RAIN SHOWERS SLIDE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND REMAIN AT
BGM IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS, IFR CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN. BGM IS
RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE EXPECTED RAIN SO CONDITIONS
WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE POSITIONING OF THE RAIN SHIELD. ELM
AND AVP SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN
AND RAIN SHOWERS DISSIPATE, BUT WILL FALL BACK TO MVFR TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...WET PATTERN PERSISTS OVER CNY WITH RESTRICTIONS AND
WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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