708
FXUS61 KBGM 231848
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVERHEAD WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY MEMORIAL DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
250 PM UPDATE...
NEW DAY...SAME STORY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL AND DAMP,
HOWEVER, SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UNFORTUNATELY, WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
COOL NW FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
WITH A FEW VALLEY SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S, BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
310 AM UPDATE...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS TO BE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK.
AN EXITING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF MAINE WILL
DETERMINE IF THE DREARY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINTAIN THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY,
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LIGHTER INTENSITY RAIN SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF
PROGRESSES THE LOW AWAY, AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN MITIGATING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
GENERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT
THIS COULD CHANGE AS WE CONTINUE TO RECEIVE UPDATED MODEL
SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SLIGHT WARMER TREND IS
EXPECTED, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOW
60S SUNDAY TO THE MID 60S/LOW 70S ON MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
310 AM UPDATE...
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD;
UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES WITH AS UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. MODEL
SOLUTIONS DEPICT VERY UNORGANIZED WEATHER. FOR NOW, WE HAVE
GENERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO TURN OVERHEAD. THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO
THE TWIN TIERS. BGM IS RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE
EXPECTED RAIN AND CLEARING, SO CONDITIONS WILL BE DETERMINED BY
THE POSITIONING OF THE RAIN SHIELD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ELM
AND AVP SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL FALL
BACK TO MVFR TOWARDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WET PATTERN PERSISTS OVER CNY WITH
RESTRICTIONS AND WAVES OF RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MPK
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