446
FXUS61 KBGM 232353
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
753 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVERHEAD WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO
NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BY MEMORIAL DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ADJUSTED THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND QPF A BIT WITH THE EARLY
EVENING UPDATE. FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW ON TRACK.
250 PM UPDATE...
NEW DAY...SAME STORY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN
OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN COOL AND DAMP,
HOWEVER, SHOWER CHANCES WILL DECREASE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST INTO NOVA SCOTIA. UNFORTUNATELY, WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
COOL NW FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER,
WITH A FEW VALLEY SPOTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S, BUT
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
310 PM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY LIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING AS OUR REGION RESTS INBETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. OTHERWISE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THE GFS ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THERE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
EAST. IF THE UPPER LOW MAKES A SLOWER EXIT, AS SEEN IN THE EURO,
THEN SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. DECIDED TO STICK WITH
NBM DURING THIS PERIOD KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. REGARDLESS MODELS AGREE ON DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
310 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A SYSTEM THEN TRACKS ALONG THE RIDGE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT GFS AND EURO KEEPS THIS SYSTEM JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER TO
OUR REGION LIKE THE CANADIAN IS SUGGESTING. THEREFORE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WENESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, BUT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN TERMS OF
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END THOUGH WILL CONTINUE AT
RME AND SYR THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWER CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AFTER 06Z AT THE OTHER CNY TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL
FALL TO IFR AT ALL CNY TERMINALS, THOUGH LIFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT BOTH RME AND SYR. FOR NOW, CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE AT RME ONLY. AVP WILL FALL TO MVFR BY 12Z. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE TO FUEL ALT/MVFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AT THE
CNY TERMINALS WHILE AVP WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME CALMER OVERNIGHT BEFORE PICKING BACK EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND GUSTS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPK
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPK/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...BTL
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