887
FXUS61 KBGM 240726
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVERHEAD WITH COOL AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. A WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE
STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR MEMORIAL
DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
315 AM UPDATE...
IT MIGHT FEEL LIKE WE ARE IN AN INFINITE LOOP OF RAIN AND COLD
AS THAT IS THE STORY ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NW
FLOW CONTINUES, PUSHING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING, THEN AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN, SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
NW FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGHING PATTERN REMAINING
IN THE REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD, WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE AS WE SEE REDUCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
BUT NW FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS CHANCES
AROUND. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE ONTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, ADVECTING VORTICITY INTO
THE REGION, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FINALLY CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, STARTING A WELCOMED WARMING TREND
FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
310 PM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY LIFTS EAST ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF DRY PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING AS OUR REGION RESTS INBETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. OTHERWISE THE NEXT DISTURBANCE ARRIVES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL WITH NORTHWEST FLOW, HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.
ONCE THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR DRIER WEATHER ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
THE GFS ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
ALTHOUGH THERE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
EAST. IF THE UPPER LOW MAKES A SLOWER EXIT, AS SEEN IN THE EURO,
THEN SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY. DECIDED TO STICK WITH
NBM DURING THIS PERIOD KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID
60S TO LOW 70S. REGARDLESS MODELS AGREE ON DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
310 PM UPDATE...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A SYSTEM THEN TRACKS ALONG THE RIDGE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT GFS AND EURO KEEPS THIS SYSTEM JUST SOUTH
OF OUR REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE THIS SYSTEM LIFTS FURTHER TO
OUR REGION LIKE THE CANADIAN IS SUGGESTING. THEREFORE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WENESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY, BUT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN TERMS OF
THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER TONIGHT. SYR AND RME ARE CURRENTLY IFR AND EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THIS WAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND
ENHANCED LAKE MOISTURE WILL SLIDE SOUTH TONIGHT, BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONS TO ITH AND BGM JUST BEFORE SUNRISE INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. ELM WILL SEE CEILINGS FALL TO FUEL ALT, BUT
WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NNW, IFR CEILINGS USUALLY DO NOT DEVELOP
DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER RIDGES TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL. LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT TO AVP, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL FALL TO MVFR LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL TERMINALS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE IFR INTO FUEL ALT/MVFR BY MID-AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...JTC
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