313
FXUS61 KBGM 241334
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
934 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVERHEAD WITH CHILLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. A WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE
STARTS SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR MEMORIAL
DAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
930 AM UPDATE..
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK; TWEAKS MADE TO KEEP UP WITH
OBSERVATIONS AND LITTLE ELSE CHANGED. THE MISTIER LIGHT AND
STEADY NATURE OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING, WILL BECOME
MORE SHOWERY/CELLULAR WITH DRY GAPS THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. OF COURSE, HEATING MAY NOT BE THE RIGHT WORD FOR
TODAY CONSIDERING HIGHS 15-19 DEGREES SHORT OF THE MAY 24TH
AVERAGES. DESPITE THE PERSISTENCE OF SHOWERS, AMOUNTS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT; GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR
NORTHEAST PA-SULLIVAN COUNTY NY, AND ONE TO TWO TENTHS MORE
COMMON INTO CENTRAL NY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IT MIGHT FEEL LIKE WE ARE IN AN INFINITE LOOP OF RAIN AND COLD
AS THAT IS THE STORY ONCE AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. NW
FLOW CONTINUES, PUSHING LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOHAWK VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING, THEN AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH THE OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN, SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
NW FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH THE TROUGHING PATTERN REMAINING
IN THE REGION. THE TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD, WHICH WILL HELP
REDUCE SHOWER COVERAGE AS WE SEE REDUCED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
BUT NW FLOW OVER THE LAKES WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS CHANCES
AROUND. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
SUNDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. AN UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE ONTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, ADVECTING VORTICITY INTO
THE REGION, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL FINALLY CLIMB
BACK INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, STARTING A WELCOMED WARMING TREND
FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
335 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-81 MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH VERY MINIMAL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SUNDAY TO THE MID 60S/LOW 70S MONDAY, AND THEN UP TO
THE LOW 70S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
335 AM UPDATE...
A FEW DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTH STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME ORGANIZATION
BEGINS TO HAPPEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, AND A SMALL AND WEAK LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN, BUT MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME STORMS
MAINLY WEST OF I-81 THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY BELOW AVERAGE DAY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES,
WHERE THE LATE WEEK WARMS SLIGHTLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CNY THIS MORNING.
SYR, RME, ITH AND BGM ARE CURRENTLY IFR AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THIS WAY INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SHOWERS AND ENHANCED
LAKE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE SUBSIDES
ENOUGH TO ALLOW CEILINGS TO CLIMB TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS
SHOWERS BECOME MORE ISOLATED. ELM WILL SEE CEILINGS FALL TO FUEL
ALT, BUT WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NNW, IFR CEILINGS USUALLY DO NOT
DEVELOP DUE TO DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER RIDGES TO THE NORTH
OF THE TERMINAL. LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AVP, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL FALL TO
MVFR LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IFR CEILINGS
MAY RE-DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING, WITH RME AND ITH CURRENTLY
HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE THESE RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A LOW CHANCE
OF RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC/MDP
NEAR TERM...JTC/MDP
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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