716
FXUS61 KBGM 241807
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
207 PM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONLY SLOWLY EXIT THE
AREA THROUGH SUNDAY, AND IN TIME SHOWERS WILL BECOME FEWER.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD STILL OCCUR MEMORIAL DAY MAINLY EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81, BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MILDER THEN, WITH
EVEN SOME SUNSHINE. TUESDAY LOOKS DRY, BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
205 PM UPDATE...
CHILLY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL ONLY SLOWLY LOOSEN ITS
HOLD ON OUR REGION.
THE CENTER OF STACKED LOW PRESSURE HAS WOBBLED ITS WAY TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BUT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDS WELL
BEYOND WHICH HAS MAINTAINED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
REGION. THIS MORNING FEATURED MORE DRIZZLE/MIST AND LIGHT RAIN,
BUT WITH AFTERNOON HEATING, THINGS HAVE BECOME MORE CELLULAR.
WHILE CONVECTIVE, THE INSTABILITY IS SHALLOW; GENERALLY BELOW
10 KFT AND ALSO WARMER THAN MINUS-10 CELSIUS. THUS WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY LIGHTNING. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO LIMITING THE
ACTUAL HEATING IN THIS CHILLY AIR MASS, HOLDING HIGHS TODAY ONLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. COOLING THIS EVENING
WILL ALLOW CELLULAR SHOWERS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CLOUDS
WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE 40S.
THE STACKED LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY SUNDAY, WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR. THAT SAID, A WELL MARKED
SHORTWAVE PIVOTING AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW APPEARS SET TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH ALONG WITH HELP OF
GREAT LAKES MOISTURE, WILL GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS THAN TODAY; INDEED MUCH OF THE
TIME WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER, THE INSTABILITY LAYER WILL EXTEND A
LITTLE DEEPER BEYOND 10 KFT AND COLDER AT THE TOP OF IT. THUS
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT TOWARDS THE
WESTERN FINGER LAKES- SOUTHERN TIER; VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
WILL STILL JUST HAVE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND WHICH WILL ALTERNATE
WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE AT TIMES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S-MID 60S; STILL ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS.
LEFTOVER SHOWERS QUICKLY DISSIPATE SUNDAY EVENING, WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AS WELL. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SNEAK
DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT MORE FOR LOWS OF UPPER 30S-MID 40S. GIVEN
RECENT RAINFALL, WE MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN VALLEYS
WHERE THE SKY MANAGES TO OPEN UP.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
335 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE AREA GOING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY DRY, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS EAST OF I-81 MONDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH VERY MINIMAL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE FROM THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S SUNDAY TO THE MID 60S/LOW 70S MONDAY, AND THEN UP TO
THE LOW 70S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY'S OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
335 AM UPDATE...
A FEW DISORGANIZED DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE
SOUTH STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SOME ORGANIZATION
BEGINS TO HAPPEN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY, AND A SMALL AND WEAK LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN, BUT MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME STORMS
MAINLY WEST OF I-81 THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE ONLY BELOW AVERAGE DAY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES,
WHERE THE LATE WEEK WARMS SLIGHTLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MOISTURE, SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE TO HANG
AROUND COURTESY OF THE PERSISTING INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE. THAT SAID, SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY EDGE INTO
THE REGION TO REDUCE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. KAVP-KELM SHOULD STAY
ABOVE 2000 FEET CEILINGS AT THIS POINT, BUT THE REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR AND FUEL ALTERNATE
REQUIRED LEVELS WITH PASSING SHOWERS; THEN EVENTUALLY DIPPING
BACK INTO IFR AS CEILINGS LOWER OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE MIDDAY ONWARD.
OUTLOOK...
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS END, BUT
THE MINOR CEILING RESTRICTIONS COULD PERSIST. WHERE CLOUDS
BREAK, VALLEY FOG ALSO POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY KELM.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; TEMPORARY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES
TO CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND PERHAPS EVENTUAL
THUNDER.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MDP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page