695
FXUS61 KBGM 250734
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
334 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK HITTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. MEMORIAL DAY WILL SEE A MUCH WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PUSHING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS, BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 40S.
THE MORNING WILL START OFF QUIET, WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING
AFTERNOON LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD HELP
DEVELOP CELLULAR SHOWERS AGAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A TAD
DEEPER TODAY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN TWIN TIERS,
REACHING UP TO 11-12K FEET, WITH TEMPS FALLING JUST BELOW
-10C AT THE TOP OF THE CAPE CURVE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
THE EARLY EVENING AS WE LOOSE SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
AN ABSOLUTELY MUCH WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS ON MEMORIAL
DAY AS THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BROUGHT US SUCH DREARY
WEATHER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
MAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
215 PM UPDATE...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA
MONDAY, MEMORIAL DAY, AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
WILL START TO BUILD IN LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE
STILL CAN BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MONDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SLOW TO BUILD IN AND DISRUPT THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE, BUT POPS ARE MAINLY LESS THAN 25%
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY SO MUCH OF THE TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN-
FREE. MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. SOME OF THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN
THE HILLS SOUTH OF SYRACUSE AND THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND INTO THE
CATSKILL WILL BE STUCK IN THE LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S.
WE'LL GET A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE WET WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE
NJ/DELMARVA COAST OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ANY SUNSHINE FROM EARLY IN THE DAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE MILDER TREND WILL CONTINUE AS HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
LOOKING FARTHER OUT WEST, ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY, AND A SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WARM
FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
TOWARD THE CWA AND CAN LEAD TO A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FROM STEUBEN COUNTY SOUTH AND EAST
ACROSS BRADFORD, WYOMING AND LUZERNE COUNTIES IN PA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
215 PM UPDATE...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH
AND EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, REACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BY ABOUT 12Z THURSDAY. AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD, THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS THE CWA DURING THIS TIME. THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY
TRAVELS NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
ALSO SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE
WITH 30-50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, SO SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE PATTERN STILL LOOKS UNSETTLED FRIDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRANSITIONS
TO AN OPEN TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PUSHES EAST AND IS
FOLLOWED UP BY ADDITIONAL UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT KEEP GENERAL
TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
AS THE FLOW SHIFTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND UPWARD FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A WIDE RANGE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH NE PA AND THE TWIN TIERS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
MUCH OF THE DAY, WHILE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CNY TOWARD THE TUG
HILL, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DISSIPATE, WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. RME IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY TERMINAL
EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
BGM HAD SOME EARLIER IFR CEILINGS, BUT THAT WAS DUE TO RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE REGION. ONCE RAIN EXITED, CEILINGS WENT
BACK TO FUEL ALT. GUIDANCE WANTS TO KEEP CEILINGS LOW, BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE RAIN SHOWERS ARE NEEDED TO ACCOMPLISH THIS AND RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. ITH HAS
BEEN TRICKY AS NW FLOW USUALLY HELPS PUSH CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR
IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN
FUEL ALT CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING SO IFR CEILINGS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE TAF. SYR, ELM AND AVP SHOULD SEE MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO SPREAD
OUT TO INCLUDE IMPACTS AT SPECIFIC TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VFR CEILINGS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS END, BUT THE MINOR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS COULD PERSIST. WHERE CLOUDS BREAK, VALLEY FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KELM.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; TEMPORARY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC
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