957
FXUS61 KBGM 250742
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
342 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUICK HITTING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. MEMORIAL DAY WILL SEE A MUCH WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN, BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PUSHING
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS, BUT CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID 40S.
THE MORNING WILL START OFF QUIET, WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW, MOVING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING
AFTERNOON LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS BACK TO THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT SHOULD HELP
DEVELOP CELLULAR SHOWERS AGAIN. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A TAD
DEEPER TODAY OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND WESTERN TWIN TIERS,
REACHING UP TO 11-12K FEET, WITH TEMPS FALLING JUST BELOW
-10C AT THE TOP OF THE CAPE CURVE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS CLOUD
COVER WILL NOT BE AS EXTENSIVE AS THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS,
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN
THE EARLY EVENING AS WE LOOSE SURFACE HEATING AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROTATES OUT OF THE REGION. SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.
AN ABSOLUTELY MUCH WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS ON MEMORIAL
DAY AS THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS BROUGHT US SUCH DREARY
WEATHER MOVES EAST OF THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE END OF
MAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
340 AM UPDATE...
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE WARMEST AND DRIEST
DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA, WITH SOME UPPER AND MID LEVEL RIDGING, WILL INCREASE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT TO THE LOW/MID 50S
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM CANADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AS THE TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE AREA, MULTIPLE SMALLER DISTURBANCES FOLLOW, BRING RAIN
SHOWERS EVERY DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER SWINGS
SOUTHWARD, PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, WITH SMALL BOUNCES BETWEEN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO DISSIPATE, WITH LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. RME IS CURRENTLY THE ONLY TERMINAL
EXPECTED TO HAVE IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM LAKE ONTARIO.
BGM HAD SOME EARLIER IFR CEILINGS, BUT THAT WAS DUE TO RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE REGION. ONCE RAIN EXITED, CEILINGS WENT
BACK TO FUEL ALT. GUIDANCE WANTS TO KEEP CEILINGS LOW, BUT IT
SEEMS LIKE RAIN SHOWERS ARE NEEDED TO ACCOMPLISH THIS AND RAIN
IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT. ITH HAS
BEEN TRICKY AS NW FLOW USUALLY HELPS PUSH CEILINGS DOWN TO IFR
IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN
FUEL ALT CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING SO IFR CEILINGS WERE KEPT OUT
OF THE TAF. SYR, ELM AND AVP SHOULD SEE MVFR/FUEL ALT CEILINGS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN, BUT COVERAGE IS TOO SPREAD
OUT TO INCLUDE IMPACTS AT SPECIFIC TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.
ALL TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE VFR CEILINGS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS END, BUT THE MINOR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS COULD PERSIST. WHERE CLOUDS BREAK, VALLEY FOG ALSO
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT KELM.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; TEMPORARY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC
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