470
FXUS61 KBGM 251753
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
153 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT AND THEN MEMORIAL DAY WILL
SEE A MUCH WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
150 PM UPDATE...
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AROUND COUNTER-CLOCKWISE
NW FLOW. A MINOR SHORT WAVE ALOFT ADVANCING ACROSS WESTERN NY
AND PA HAS ALREADY STARTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS WITHIN THE DEEPEST
PLUMES OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF PA. THESE WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE WAVE. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE DIMINISHING SHOWERS BEHIND THE
UPPER WAVE AND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. THERE WILL BE A TRADE OFF
BETWEEN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND CLEARING AREAS BUT I THINK
THERE'S A FAIR OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH RAIN ON THE GROUND...LET ALONE FROM THE
WEEKS OF WET WEATHER PRIMING THE SYSTEM.
MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE THE SALVAGE DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES FULL CONTROL ALLOWING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BURN
OFF IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND MAYBE A TOUCH OF 70 IN NEPA AND
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
340 AM UPDATE...
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE WARMEST AND DRIEST
DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA, WITH SOME UPPER AND MID LEVEL RIDGING, WILL INCREASE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY FOR MOST OF THE DAY, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGRESSES CLOSER TO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
INCREASE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S MONDAY NIGHT TO THE LOW/MID 50S
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
340 AM UPDATE...
AN INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP AS
COOLER AIR FILTERS DOWN FROM CANADA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AS THE TROUGH SETTLES IN
OVER THE AREA, MULTIPLE SMALLER DISTURBANCES FOLLOW, BRING RAIN
SHOWERS EVERY DAY AND NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD, INTO THE WEEKEND. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN LOW CENTER SWINGS
SOUTHWARD, PUSHING A WEAK BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES IMPROVE SLIGHTLY, WITH SMALL BOUNCES BETWEEN THE
MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE VFR
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR STILL AROUND DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND/OR ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE KITH-
KELM-KBGM AREAS. LOW CHANCES FOR A -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KELM
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST. THEN, FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES QUITE LOW AFTER
DARK AS CELLULAR CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING AREAS OF SKC ALONG
WITH PASSING SYNOPTIC CLOUD FIELDS. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH BUT PERHAPS NOT
AS FAR WEST AS KELM. THIS WOULD LEAVE THEM PRIMED FOR A HIT OF
AIRPORT MINIMUMS DUE TO DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. TRENDS IN MOS
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO RAISE PROBABILITY OF FOG AND THE FRESH
RAINFALL TODAY ALONG WITH WEEKS OF RELATIVELY WET CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FOG AT SOME OF THE OTHER
CNY STATIONS FOR SIMILAR REASONS. A RETURN TO VFR IS THEN
EXPECTED A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; TEMPORARY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JAB
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