030
FXUS61 KBGM 251943
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
343 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL END TONIGHT AND THEN MEMORIAL DAY WILL
SEE A MUCH WELCOMED PATTERN CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN,
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND PUSHING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BACK
TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHOWERS RETURN MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
150 PM UPDATE...
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AROUND COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE NW FLOW. A MINOR SHORT WAVE ALOFT ADVANCING ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND PA HAS ALREADY STARTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS WITHIN
THE DEEPEST PLUMES OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. THESE WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE DIMINISHING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE NEXT
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. THERE WILL BE A
TRADE OFF BETWEEN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND CLEARING AREAS BUT I
THINK THERE'S A FAIR OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH RAIN ON THE GROUND...LET ALONE FROM THE
WEEKS OF WET WEATHER PRIMING THE SYSTEM.
MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE THE SALVAGE DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES FULL CONTROL ALLOWING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BURN
OFF IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND MAYBE A TOUCH OF 70 IN NEPA AND
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
340 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING, AND SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS, IT
WILL BE DRY, AND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT, IT WILL BE
TURNING MILDER WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE, OUR NEXT FEATURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY, AND A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S,
WITH THE SYRACUSE METRO AND MOHAWK VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH RAIN ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
340 PM UPDATE...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND
EAST INTO CANADA AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND WILL ALSO
DRAW IN COOLER CANADIAN AIR. WHILE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LOW,
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WEAK BOUNDARIES PUSH THROUGH.
HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S WITH MID 70S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY'S
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
THEN IT WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
CEILINGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL GENERALLY BE VFR
WITH POCKETS OF MVFR STILL AROUND DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND/OR ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE KITH-
KELM-KBGM AREAS. LOW CHANCES FOR A -TSRA IN THE VICINITY OF KELM
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
FORECAST. THEN, FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES QUITE LOW AFTER
DARK AS CELLULAR CLOUDS DISSIPATE LEAVING AREAS OF SKC ALONG
WITH PASSING SYNOPTIC CLOUD FIELDS. MODELS SUGGEST MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD SOUTH BUT PERHAPS NOT
AS FAR WEST AS KELM. THIS WOULD LEAVE THEM PRIMED FOR A HIT OF
AIRPORT MINIMUMS DUE TO DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. TRENDS IN MOS
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO RAISE PROBABILITY OF FOG AND THE FRESH
RAINFALL TODAY ALONG WITH WEEKS OF RELATIVELY WET CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FOG AT SOME OF THE OTHER
CNY STATIONS FOR SIMILAR REASONS. A RETURN TO VFR IS THEN
EXPECTED A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR; TEMPORARY HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JAB
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