973
FXUS61 KBGM 260714
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
314 AM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUITE THE LOVELY DAY FOR MOST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES. A
FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE FINGER
LAKES AND ONEIDA TO DELAWARE COUNTIES, BUT MOST WILL FINALLY SEE
A DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER STICKS
AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. WET WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
300 AM UPDATE...
FLOW IS MOSTLY NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS WE SIT BETWEEN THE EXITING
TROUGH AND APPROACHING RIDGE. FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER, CATSKILLS AND ONEIDA
COUNTY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FINGER LAKES. THE SUN SHOULD BURN THE FOG OFF BY 8 OR 9AM.
IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ABSOLUTELY WONDERFUL MEMORIAL DAY,
WHICH IS WELL DESERVED FOR OUR AREA AFTER THE AWFUL WEATHER WE
HAVE HAD TO DEAL WITH OVER THE PAST WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING, BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. MOST WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW POP UP LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND SOME
WAINING UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCE COULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER ONEIDA INTO DELAWARE COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST.
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE
THAN TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD AND CALM
WINDS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY WILL SEE RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BUT
SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDIER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THANKS TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
340 PM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TUESDAY WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST BY
TUESDAY EVENING, AND SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS, IT
WILL BE DRY, AND WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN ALOFT, IT WILL BE
TURNING MILDER WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MEANWHILE, OUR NEXT FEATURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMS OVER NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY, AND A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW IS
150 PM UPDATE...
LAKE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AROUND COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE NW FLOW. A MINOR SHORT WAVE ALOFT ADVANCING ACROSS
WESTERN NY AND PA HAS ALREADY STARTED TO TRIGGER SHOWERS WITHIN
THE DEEPEST PLUMES OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM THE FINGER LAKES
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. THESE WILL CONTINUE AND EXPAND
SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK HEATING INCREASES INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE WAVE. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE DIMINISHING SHOWERS
BEHIND THE UPPER WAVE AND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE NEXT
QUESTION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT FOG. THERE WILL BE A
TRADE OFF BETWEEN CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND CLEARING AREAS BUT I
THINK THERE'S A FAIR OPPORTUNITY FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH FRESH RAIN ON THE GROUND...LET ALONE FROM THE
WEEKS OF WET WEATHER PRIMING THE SYSTEM.
MEMORIAL DAY WILL BE THE SALVAGE DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES FULL CONTROL ALLOWING FOR THE LOW CLOUDS TO BURN
OFF IN THE MORNING ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO
NORMAL IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AND MAYBE A TOUCH OF 70 IN NEPA AND
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEYS.EXPECTED TO LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY
EVENING. AS THIS LOW SLOWLY PUSHES NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE MID 60S,
WITH THE SYRACUSE METRO AND MOHAWK VALLEY REACHING THE UPPER 60S
TO NEAR 70 DEGREES WITH RAIN ARRIVING LATER IN THE DAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
340 PM UPDATE...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW MENTIONED ABOVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH AND
EAST INTO CANADA AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND WILL ALSO
DRAW IN COOLER CANADIAN AIR. WHILE CHANCES FOR THUNDER ARE LOW,
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WEAK BOUNDARIES PUSH THROUGH.
HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S WITH MID 70S IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY'S
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE LOW 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS
THEN IT WILL TREND COOLER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE 40S.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
VALLEYS OF THE CATSKILLS, SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. ITH
AND BGM HAVE SEEN FOG BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF IFR RESTRICTIONS, AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN WITH PERSISTENT IFR/LIFR VISBY IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. ELM SHOULD JOIN THE IFR PARTY SOON AS MVFR
VISBY IS DEVELOPING THERE NOW AND SHOULD FALL TO IFR/LIFR IN A
COUPLE OF HOURS. RME IS ALSO EXPECTED TO SEE IFR/LIFR VISBY FROM
FOG DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FOG DEVELOPING
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND THIS FOG SHOULD MOVE INTO
THE TERMINAL BY 9Z. THE AFOREMENTIONED TERMINALS SHOULD SEE FOG
LIFT AROUND 13-14Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.
SYR AND AVP SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WIND DIRECTION
TONIGHT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPS
WITH IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. DURING THE DAY, MAINLY
VFR; TEMPORARY HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENCROACHES, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...JTC
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