166
FXUS61 KBGM 261757
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
157 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUITE THE LOVELY DAY FOR MOST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMER AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ONEIDA TO DELAWARE COUNTIES, BUT
MOST WILL STAY RAIN-FREE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER STICKS
AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. WET WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
925 AM UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EAST OF I-81 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING.
ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
630 AM UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK EAST OF I-81 PERSISTS WITH VALLEY FOG CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINOR
UPDATES MADE TO WINDS AND SKY COVER.
300 AM UPDATE...
FLOW IS MOSTLY NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS WE SIT BETWEEN THE EXITING
TROUGH AND APPROACHING RIDGE. FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER, CATSKILLS AND ONEIDA
COUNTY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FINGER LAKES. THE SUN SHOULD BURN THE FOG OFF BY 8 OR 9AM.
IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ABSOLUTELY WONDERFUL MEMORIAL DAY,
WHICH IS WELL DESERVED FOR OUR AREA AFTER THE AWFUL WEATHER WE
HAVE HAD TO DEAL WITH OVER THE PAST WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING, BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. MOST WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW POP UP LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND SOME
WAINING UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCE COULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER ONEIDA INTO DELAWARE COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST.
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE
THAN TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD AND CALM
WINDS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY WILL SEE RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BUT
SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDIER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THANKS TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOW PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LIFTED AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT TO DEVELOP CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVER NOT FULLY IN THE REGION TILL
THURSDAY. OVERALL, HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF AN
INFLUENCE TO KEEP US DRY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS ACROSS NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD MAINLY IN THE 50'S
AND 60'S WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS ALONG THE NY THRUWAY WHERE LESS RAIN
SHOULD FALL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
FORTUNATELY, PW VALUES WITH THE LONG DRAWN OUT SYSTEM LOOK FAIRLY LOW
COUPLED WITH VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT, HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A THREAT AT THIS TIME WITH
ONLY ISOLATED THUNDER. STILL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WILL KEEP
THE COOLER AND DAMPER WEATHER PATTERN GOING. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK
TO HAVE A TIGHT RANGE IN THE 50'S AND 60'S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR
70 FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FINALLY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IN THE PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BRING SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 50'S AND 60'S WITH A FEW 40'S FOR LOWS
SUNDAY AND A LOCATION OR TWO SEEING HIGHS NEAR 70 ON FRIDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE VERY MEAGER ALONG WITH LOW PW VALUES KEEPING
ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED AT BEST AND LIMITING ANY HEAVY
RAINFALL THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT, SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS NEARLY CALM WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS, LEADING TO IFR/LIFR
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY FROM 08-12Z. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE FOG BEING VERY SHALLOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT AS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPING AROUND AVP, BGM AND
ITH SO RESTRICTIONS WERE COVERED VIA TEMPO VS. BEING
PREDOMINATE IN THE TAF. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 12-13Z
TOMORROW, AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENCROACHES, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/JTC
NEAR TERM...DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DK/JTC
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