449
FXUS61 KBGM 261853
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
253 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
QUITE THE LOVELY DAY FOR MOST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A WARMER AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM ONEIDA TO DELAWARE COUNTIES, BUT
MOST WILL STAY RAIN-FREE. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER STICKS
AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY. WET WEATHER RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
925 AM UPDATE...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER EAST OF I-81 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
AS THE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BURN OFF THIS MORNING.
ALSO INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS, OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
630 AM UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK EAST OF I-81 PERSISTS WITH VALLEY FOG CONTINUING
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH MINOR
UPDATES MADE TO WINDS AND SKY COVER.
300 AM UPDATE...
FLOW IS MOSTLY NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS WE SIT BETWEEN THE EXITING
TROUGH AND APPROACHING RIDGE. FOG HAS FORMED IN THE VALLEYS
ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES, SOUTHERN TIER, CATSKILLS AND ONEIDA
COUNTY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FINGER LAKES. THE SUN SHOULD BURN THE FOG OFF BY 8 OR 9AM.
IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE AN ABSOLUTELY WONDERFUL MEMORIAL DAY,
WHICH IS WELL DESERVED FOR OUR AREA AFTER THE AWFUL WEATHER WE
HAVE HAD TO DEAL WITH OVER THE PAST WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING, BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. MOST WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS, BUT THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW POP UP LIGHT
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES AND SOME
WAINING UPPER TROUGH INFLUENCE COULD ALLOW SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER ONEIDA INTO DELAWARE COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S FOR MOST.
VALLEY FOG WILL DEVELOP AND IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE EXTENSIVE
THAN TONIGHT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD AND CALM
WINDS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY WILL SEE RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA, BUT
SKIES WILL BECOME CLOUDIER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THANKS TO AN
APPROACHING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. TUESDAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
245 PM UPDATE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
SOME UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR SYRACUSE/UTICA/ROME WHERE CLOUDS
WILL BE THINNER AND THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO; SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID-50S. CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL BE IN A
WEAK WARM SECTOR THURSDAY, WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL BE MILD AND A LITTLE
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S. WITH SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY AROUND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE LOW
WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF OUR AREA TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY, IN THE 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT A TENTH TO HALF INCH OVER THE REGION. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
TRENDING DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DATA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
245 PM UPDATE
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY, AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BRING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ATTEMPTING TO PHASE OVER THE NORTHEAST US HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BRING SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THEN, IF THESE TWO VORTICITY MAXES CAN MERGE, A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST, OFF NJ/LONG
ISLAND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SOME STEADIER RAIN OVER AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY
DOES REMAIN, WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS,
HOW STRONG IT MAY BE, AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR NOW, STUCK
CLOSE TO THE NBM, BUT BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY RANGE FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS, PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT MONDAY, AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TIMING OF POSSIBLE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THIS GAVE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ON A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ALONG WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT, SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR AND WINDS NEARLY CALM WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
FORMATION OF FOG, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS, LEADING TO IFR/LIFR
RESTRICTIONS GENERALLY FROM 08-12Z. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THE FOG BEING VERY SHALLOW EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT AS HIGH IN FOG DEVELOPING AROUND AVP, BGM AND
ITH SO RESTRICTIONS WERE COVERED VIA TEMPO VS. BEING
PREDOMINATE IN THE TAF. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 12-13Z
TOMORROW, AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENCROACHES, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK/JTC
NEAR TERM...DK/JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...DK/JTC
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