388
FXUS61 KBGM 270521
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
121 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
IT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
WITH THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE, INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF VALLEY RIVER
FOG A BIT HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS FOG LOOKS TO BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING.
335 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED INSTABILITY CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR REMAINING ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SPOTS CAN SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z, MAINLY
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS, THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SETTLES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BEFORE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TONIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CALM WINDS IN PLACE, AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE FORMING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 40S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON LEADING TO THICKENING CLOUDS, BUT DESPITE THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE TOMORROW
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND IT WILL BE A
MILDER DAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL LEAD TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND THE RETURN OF SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS NE PA, THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NOT QUITE AS CHILLY TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
245 PM UPDATE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE WITH US AGAIN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS TO PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY UNDER OVERCAST SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT
SOME UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR SYRACUSE/UTICA/ROME WHERE CLOUDS
WILL BE THINNER AND THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY.
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAIN ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO; SEASONABLY COOL WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID-50S. CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA WILL BE IN A
WEAK WARM SECTOR THURSDAY, WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS STILL IN THE FORECAST. IT WILL BE MILD AND A LITTLE
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S. WITH SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY AROUND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE LOW
WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF OUR AREA TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN STEADY, IN THE 50S. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT A TENTH TO HALF INCH OVER THE REGION. THESE AMOUNTS ARE
TRENDING DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST DATA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
245 PM UPDATE
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY, AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD BRING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS TWO PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
ATTEMPTING TO PHASE OVER THE NORTHEAST US HEADING INTO SATURDAY.
THE NORTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY WILL BRING SHOWERS AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. THEN, IF THESE TWO VORTICITY MAXES CAN MERGE, A DEEPER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST, OFF NJ/LONG
ISLAND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD KEEP SOME STEADIER RAIN OVER AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. UNCERTAINTY
DOES REMAIN, WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THIS COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS,
HOW STRONG IT MAY BE, AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW. FOR NOW, STUCK
CLOSE TO THE NBM, BUT BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY RANGE FOR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AGAIN. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES REMAIN OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY,
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS, PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR NEXT MONDAY, AS UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TIMING OF POSSIBLE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. THIS GAVE ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK ON A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION AROUND AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AT KRME, KITH,
KBGM AND KELM. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT KELM AND KRME WHERE FOG
ALREADY MADE AN APPEARANCE A FEW HOURS AGO. LIGHT WINDS BUT
SOME SHIFT IN DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT... MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENCROACHES, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/MWG
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MWG
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