623
FXUS61 KBGM 270611
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
211 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
IT WILL BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG. DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TUESDAY
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUDS. ROUNDS OF SHOWERS RETURN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WITH THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE, INCREASED THE COVERAGE OF VALLEY RIVER
FOG A BIT HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS FOG LOOKS TO BURN OFF BY
MID-MORNING.
335 PM UPDATE...
SCATTERED INSTABILITY CLOUDS HAVE FORMED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH COOL AIR REMAINING ALOFT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH EAST. A FEW SPOTS CAN SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM THROUGH ABOUT 00Z, MAINLY
ACROSS ONEIDA COUNTY AND THE CATSKILLS, THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN AND SETTLES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL TURN OUT MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING BEFORE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS START TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER ON
TONIGHT. WITH RELATIVELY CALM WINDS IN PLACE, AREAS OF FOG WILL
BE FORMING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 40S.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR EAST BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON LEADING TO THICKENING CLOUDS, BUT DESPITE THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER, IT WILL REMAIN DRY. HEIGHTS WILL RISE TOMORROW
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND IT WILL BE A
MILDER DAY AS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OFF TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL LEAD TO AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE TOMORROW
NIGHT AND THE RETURN OF SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND GRADUALLY SPREAD FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS NE PA, THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES
REGION PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. NOT QUITE AS CHILLY TOMORROW
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
210 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWINGS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ENHANCING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THIS WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL. THEREFORE MAINLY EXPECTING
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS PROGRESSING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
GRADUALLY PROGRESSES EAST ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
BEHIND IT. LIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY
PRESENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE LOW WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. BRIEF DRY PERIOD THEN
FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH WESTERLY FLOW HOLDING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
210 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE MIDWEST ROTATES AS IT MOVES
EAST ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE A FEW VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW, GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED. THE EURO AND THE CANADIAN SHOWS THIS LOW TRACKING
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, THEREFORE KEEPING A SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. DESPITE THIS MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON
THIS FEATURE MOVING OFF SHORE AND DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW.
AS THIS IS HAPPENING, ANOTHER LOW DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND
PHASES WITH THE COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING EAST. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DRY OUT BY EARLY WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A WARM UP
EXPECTED TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION AROUND AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AT KRME, KITH,
KBGM AND KELM. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT KELM AND KRME WHERE FOG
ALREADY MADE AN APPEARANCE A FEW HOURS AGO. LIGHT WINDS BUT
SOME SHIFT IN DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT... MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENCROACHES, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK/MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MWG
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