608
FXUS61 KBGM 270652
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
252 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS ARE STILL PROBABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. MOST
OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY DESPITE PATCHY FOG EARLY. HOWEVER,
CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH
MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE A HIGH
TEMPERATURE JUST OVER 70.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST BUT
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH THAT SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
TONIGHT IN THE 50'S. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD HAVE A WIDE RANGE
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THAT STAY DRIER
GETTING CLOSE TO 70 WITH WETTER SPOTS IN NE PA AND THE SOUTHERN TIER
STRUGGLING TO 60 FOR HIGHS. QPF LOOKS FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH WITH ANY
SHOWERS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
210 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWINGS NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ENHANCING MOISTURE BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE. THIS WILL
ALLOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES RELATIVELY CLOSE TO NORMAL. THEREFORE MAINLY EXPECTING
STEADY RAIN SHOWERS PROGRESSING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AGAIN FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS
THE REGION. ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW
GRADUALLY PROGRESSES EAST ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING
BEHIND IT. LIFT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD HELP SUPPORT
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MINIMAL INSTABILITY
PRESENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE LOW WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. BRIEF DRY PERIOD THEN
FOLLOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 50S
WITH WESTERLY FLOW HOLDING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
210 AM UPDATE...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE MIDWEST ROTATES AS IT MOVES
EAST ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE A FEW VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THIS
LOW, GFS BRINGS THIS SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH SHOWERS
EXPECTED. THE EURO AND THE CANADIAN SHOWS THIS LOW TRACKING
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION, THEREFORE KEEPING A SLIGHTLY DRIER
SOLUTION IN THE FORECAST. DESPITE THIS MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON
THIS FEATURE MOVING OFF SHORE AND DEVELOPING INTO A COASTAL LOW.
AS THIS IS HAPPENING, ANOTHER LOW DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND
PHASES WITH THE COASTAL LOW BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER RAINY WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN
OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING EAST. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS ON MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO DRY OUT BY EARLY WEEK. TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. A WARM UP
EXPECTED TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART. MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR FOG FORMATION AROUND AND A BIT BEFORE SUNRISE AT KRME, KITH,
KBGM AND KELM. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT KELM AND KRME WHERE FOG
ALREADY MADE AN APPEARANCE A FEW HOURS AGO. LIGHT WINDS BUT
SOME SHIFT IN DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY OVERNIGHT... MAINLY VFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENCROACHES, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MWG
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