324
FXUS61 KBGM 271802
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
202 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS ARE STILL PROBABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
200 PM UPDATE...
TODAY WILL REMAIN DRY BUT ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AND WILL THICKEN AND LOWER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE ADDED
TO THE CATSKILLS AS DAY TIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN AND REDUCES SURFACE
HEATING. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO
SUNRISE TOMORROW AND SPREAD THROUGH THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS DELAYED A FEW HOURS AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDING ON LONGER AND THE
PRECIPITATION RATE IS FAIRLY LIGHT.
THE LOW IS MOVING SLOW SO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, LIKE THIS LAST SYSTEM, THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
FORCING AND WITH THE CLOUD COVER, INSTABILITY WILL HAVE A TOUGH
TIME DEVELOPING, RAINFALL WILL OVERALL BE LIGHT. SMALL RISES IN
STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED BUT NO THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
OR FLOODING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
150 PM UPDATE:
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, ALONG
WITH SOME SUBTLE SHORTWAVES. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA. WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY PRESENT,
THUNDER IS UNLIKELY, BUT CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT, A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS OUR REGION WILL BE IN
BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. AND A COASTAL SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY FORM OFF OF
THE THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND RIDE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-81.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
150 PM UPDATE:
UNSETTLED/RAINY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL LOW
MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, FOLLOWED BY A SECONDARY TROUGH
PIVOTING THROUGH THE AREA. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE THE
DRIER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED WRAP-AROUND
SHOWERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
WITH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ONCE AGAIN.
FOR MONDAY ONWARDS, A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO FINALLY OCCUR AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER WEATHER TO FINALLY OCCUR ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BE THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING IN
AFTER 12Z FROM SW TO NE. AVP AND ELM MAY SEE SOME RAIN PRIOR TO
18Z BUT DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP CIGS AND VIS VFR
DESPITE POTENTIAL RAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ENCROACHES, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/RESTRICTIONS, AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LEAVING WITH LOWERING CHANCES OF RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MWG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...AJG
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