301
FXUS61 KBGM 281039
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
639 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE
STILL PROBABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE, PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
ON TRACK.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEAST TODAY TOWARD THE REGION. HOWEVER, LOW AND MID LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ERODE LEADING TO A SLOW PROGRESSION OF
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. WITH
THICKER CLOUDS AND MORE SHOWERS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NE PA MAY ONLY END UP WITH HIGHS AROUND 60. FURTHER
NORTHEAST WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE NEAR THE NY THRUWAY
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT 70.
WHILE SOME TIMING UNCERTAINITY IS PRESENT WITH HOW FAST THE SHOWERS
MOVE IN TODAY THE BULK OF THEM SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST AS TIME GOES ON. DEEP MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY STILL LOOK FAIRLY WEAK. SO, MOST OF THE SHOWERS
STILL LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. TEMPERATURES DON'T FALL MUCH
TONIGHT ONLY BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50'S. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD PUSH A DECAYING WARM FRONT THROUGH THE REGION BY
THURSDAY LEADING TO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS BECOMING MORE SCATTERED.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER AS WELL. AS A RESULT OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO AROUND 70 REGIONWIDE. TOTAL QPF
UNDER HALF AN INCH SO NO FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES EAST INTO
OUR REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SHOWERS TO FILL BACK IN.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY
FOCUSING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH RAIN TOTALS UP
TO AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS REGION. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER OUR REGION AS IT MOVES EAST
MEANWHILE A COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA SATURDAY. THIS KEEPS SHOWERS GOING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED WRAP-
AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 60S. FOR MONDAY ONWARDS, A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO
FINALLY OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER WEATHER TO FINALLY OCCUR ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING. CEILINGS GRADUALLY
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WITH RESTRICTIONS BY THIS EVENING. EXACT ONSET TIMING
OF RESTRICTIONS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BY A FEW HOURS. MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS (KBGM,KELM,KITH,KAVP) BY TONIGHT
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING: SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN,
BREEZY.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LEAVING WITH LOWERING CHANCES OF RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MWG
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