879
FXUS61 KBGM 281751
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
151 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY GIVE WAY TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE
STILL PROBABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
145 PM UPDATE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. NEPA HAS SEEN RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BUT RAIN IS JUST ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AS OF
MID DAY. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS EVAPORATED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS FALLING ON THE LEADING EDGE SO TIMING FOR
RAIN IN CNY HAS BEEN DELAYED FARTHER INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS OUT, THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BUT WIDESPREAD. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
QUARTER INCH AND LESS WITH ISOLATED AREAS IN HIGHER TERRAIN
SEEING A LITTLE MORE.
TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE A LARGE SUBSIDENCE LAYER AROUND 700 TO 600 MB
THAT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION BUT THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY BELOW THIS LAYER. THUNDER CHANCES WERE REDUCED AS
THE SHALLOW CONVECTION WOULD BARELY GET TO FREEZING SO CHANCES
OF GETTING ANY CHARGE SEPARATION IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS
UNLIKELY. THE SELF DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE AS THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP
AS WELL AS THE COLD POOLS THEY CREATE AS DRY AIR MIXES IN TO
THE SHOWERS ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS.
GIVEN THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WORDING IN THE GRIDS
RATHER THAN UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE...
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS SYSTEM EXITS EAST. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES EAST INTO
OUR REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING SHOWERS TO FILL BACK IN.
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT PRIMARILY
FOCUSING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF OUR REGION WITH RAIN TOTALS UP
TO AN INCH EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN CATSKILLS REGION. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S BY AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT RETURNING TO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER OUR REGION AS IT MOVES EAST
MEANWHILE A COASTAL SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF OF THE THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA SATURDAY. THIS KEEPS SHOWERS GOING OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH EXPECTED.
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY BE IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA. NORTHWEST FLOW FOLLOWS ON SUNDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED WRAP-
AROUND SHOWERS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS
AGAIN IN THE 60S. FOR MONDAY ONWARDS, A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO
FINALLY OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER WEATHER TO FINALLY OCCUR ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY AIR HAS KEPT AVP VFR DESPITE RAIN FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS AND
GIVEN THE SW FLOW, MVFR CIGS WERE PUSHED BACK UNTIL 22Z. BGM AND
ELM ARE ALSO DEALING WITH DRY AIR THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MADE IT
INTO ELM. WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR STILL, A TEMPO WAS KEPT UNTIL
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TOWARDS EVENING. ELM AND BGM HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING IFR CIGS TONIGHT. ITH SEES SOME DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AS WELL SO CHANCES OF IFR ARE LOW DESPITE BEING AT A
HIGHER ELEVATION. SYR AND RME WILL NOT SEE LOWER CIGS TILL THE
LOW MOVES NORTH ENOUGH AND THAT WONT BE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS THOUGH MOSTLY VFR, POTENTIAL
FOG AT ELM.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN,
BREEZY.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LEAVING WITH LOWERING CHANCES OF RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...AJG/MWG
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