487
FXUS61 KBGM 281944
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
344 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
RAIN IS SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND WILL LINGER INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. A BRIEF DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRIER
WITH A COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
145 PM UPDATE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. NEPA HAS SEEN RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BUT RAIN IS JUST ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AS OF
MID DAY. DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS HAS EVAPORATED MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS FALLING ON THE LEADING EDGE SO TIMING FOR
RAIN IN CNY HAS BEEN DELAYED FARTHER INTO THE EVENING. WITH THE
SURFACE LOW FILLING AS IT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS OUT, THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT
BUT WIDESPREAD. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
QUARTER INCH AND LESS WITH ISOLATED AREAS IN HIGHER TERRAIN
SEEING A LITTLE MORE.
TOMORROW IS LOOKING A LITTLE DRIER AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE
TRIES TO BUILD IN AND LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE A LARGE SUBSIDENCE LAYER AROUND 700 TO 600 MB
THAT WILL LIMIT THE DEPTH OF CONVECTION BUT THERE WILL BE
INSTABILITY BELOW THIS LAYER. THUNDER CHANCES WERE REDUCED AS
THE SHALLOW CONVECTION WOULD BARELY GET TO FREEZING SO CHANCES
OF GETTING ANY CHARGE SEPARATION IN THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS IS
UNLIKELY. THE SELF DESTRUCTIVE SUNSHINE AS THESE SHOWERS DEVELOP
AS WELL AS THE COLD POOLS THEY CREATE AS DRY AIR MIXES IN TO
THE SHOWERS ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THESE SHOWERS.
GIVEN THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
DECIDED TO GO WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WORDING IN THE GRIDS
RATHER THAN UNCERTAINTY. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE A FEW SHOWERS
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS
OF DAY TIME HEATING.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
340 PM UPDATE...
A DEEP TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR, THIS NOR'EASTER WILL BE ALL
RAIN ONCE AGAIN AND WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS LAST SYSTEM. SINCE
THE LOW IS DEEPENING WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED,
GOOD SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL HELP GENERATE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
RAIN. LUCKILY THE LOW WILL BE MOVING FAST SO THE HEAVIER RAIN
LAST ONLY A FEW HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RATES WILL BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT TOO MUCH OF A CONCERN AND
THE SPEED OF THE LOW WILL LIMIT THE FLOOD THREAT. THANKS TO THE
RIVERS LARGELY RECEDING AFTER THE RAIN A FEW WEEKS AGO, MAIN
STEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD. COLD AIR ADVECTION
SATURDAY WITH THE STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO
WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
340 PM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM STARTS OFF WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
BROUGHT THE WEEKEND RAIN STUCK IN PLACE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK TO NEAR 0 SO DAY TIME HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE. A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BUILDING IN WILL KEEP MOST OF
THE REGION DRY OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. MONDAY THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH WARMER AIR AT 850
STARTING TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
SLOW RECOVERY OF DAY TIME HIGHS BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
DRY AIR HAS KEPT AVP VFR DESPITE RAIN FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS AND
GIVEN THE SW FLOW, MVFR CIGS WERE PUSHED BACK UNTIL 22Z. BGM AND
ELM ARE ALSO DEALING WITH DRY AIR THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MADE IT
INTO ELM. WITH POCKETS OF DRY AIR STILL, A TEMPO WAS KEPT UNTIL
MORE PERSISTENT MVFR CIGS TOWARDS EVENING. ELM AND BGM HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE AT SEEING IFR CIGS TONIGHT. ITH SEES SOME DOWNSLOPE
WINDS AS WELL SO CHANCES OF IFR ARE LOW DESPITE BEING AT A
HIGHER ELEVATION. SYR AND RME WILL NOT SEE LOWER CIGS TILL THE
LOW MOVES NORTH ENOUGH AND THAT WONT BE UNTIL CLOSER TO 12Z
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS THOUGH MOSTLY VFR, POTENTIAL
FOG AT ELM.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS WITH RAIN,
BREEZY.
SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LEAVING WITH LOWERING CHANCES OF RAIN AND
RESTRICTIONS.
MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...AJG/MWG
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