647
FXUS61 KBGM 190810
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
410 AM EDT THU JUN 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS STAY WARM AND HUMID TODAY BEFORE BEING FOLLOWED BY A
BRIEF COOL DOWN TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES THEN SURGE
MUCH WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY A FEW DRY DAYS
TO START NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
335 AM UPDATE...
TODAY WILL BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. OUR AREA WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR, ALLOWING FOR A VERY MOIST AND WARM ENVIRONMENT WITH
INCREASED INSTABILITY, AND TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S EFFECTIVELY REMOVING ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE
AREAS MOST PRIME FOR SEVERE DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE ALONG
I-81 AND EASTWARD, WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS, WHICH CAN FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED LINES OF STORMS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS. THOUGH EAST OF
I-81 HAS THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD, SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREAS IN CENTRAL NY AND NE PA. WITH A PRIME
ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL KICK OFF AS A
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, ACTING AS THE MAIN MECHANISM
FOR BROADER STORM INITIATION, WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A QLCS-TYPE
LINE SEGMENT THAT BRINGS THE INCREASED ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.
HOWEVER, MORE DISCRETE STORM CELLS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. AS THE MAIN
BOUNDARY APPROACHES, THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENT IS MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE MID- TO LATE-AFTERNOON,
PROGRESSING WEST TO EAST. OVERALL POTENTIAL THREATS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ARE GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS, SEVERE HAIL (GREATER
THAN 1 INCH DIAMETER), AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE TORNADO
THREAT IS PRIMARILY FOR AREAS ALONG I-81 AND EASTWARD.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THIS MOIST OF AN ENVIRONMENT AND PWAT VALUES
OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
AFTER THE PASSING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEFTOVER SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN CENTRAL NY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE BIT INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
FOR FRIDAY. A MUCH WEAKER AND SMALLER SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO
BRING SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
345 AM UPDATE
STRONG RIDGING BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING
TO OVER 580 DM BY SATURDAY MORNING. A GOOD AMOUNT OF ELEVATED
CAPE IS EXPECTED WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING IN WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR WILL BE IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE BUT THE
LACK OF STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY STORMS
THAT POP UP OVERNIGHT TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE AND THE
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN TO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT.
RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY WITH DAY TIME HIGHS
WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S. ALL THIS HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEADS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE SO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY DESPITE MODELS
NOT HINTING AT MUCH.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WE HAVE AN
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) ADVECTING IN WITH 700 MB TO 500 MB
LAPSE RATES GETTING OVER 8C/KM. ALMOST EVERY MODEL HAS A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND PROPAGATING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
SOMEWHERE INTO NY UP INTO NEW ENGLAND. GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND THE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE GRADIENT WITH SW WINDS
ALOFT ABLE TO FEED THE MCS THROUGH THE NIGHT, A POTENTIAL
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) WILL FORM. THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MCV MAY HAVE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE COLD POOL THAT DEVELOPS WITH THE SYSTEM.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING HOT WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS ABOVE 590 DM AND 850
MB TEMPERATURES UP OVER 20C. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE AN
INVERSION WITH DRY AIR NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WHILE
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE DEW POINTS IN THE AFTERNOON TRY AND MIX
DOWN SOME, THE VERY WET GROUNDS AND STRONG EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
WITH THE HOT TEMPS MAY MAINTAIN DEW POINTS AT HIGHER VALUES.
THE COMBO OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL CLOSER TO 100
DEGREES IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS, LOW ELEVATION AREAS, AND URBAN
AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
410 AM UPDATE
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO WARM MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 500 MB
HEIGHTS MAY MAKE A RUN FOR 600 DM BUT MODELS TEND TO OVERDO
THOSE EXTREME HEIGHTS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURE FEEDBACK LOOPS.
DAY TIME HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHILE THE DEW POINTS WERE BUMPED UP A FEW
DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH DAYS DO SHOW THE CAPPING
INVERSION NEARLY MIXING OUT WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD LIMIT OVERALL
HEATING POTENTIAL. STILL, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
BOTH DAYS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S SO HEAT
HEADLINES WILL STILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE RIDGE TRIES TO BREAK
DOWN MID NEXT WEEK BUT MODELS TEND TO BREAK THEM DOWN TOO FAST
SO WEDNESDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING WARMER AND MUGGIER THAN
FORECAST.
AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH SOME RAIN FROM EARLIER, PLUS THE SATURATED SURFACE
CONDITIONS, THERE IS POSSIBILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT
ITH AND ELM. ELM HAS THE BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING LIFR
CONDITIONS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. A TEMPO FROM 06Z TO 10Z
WAS ADDED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. SIMILARLY, ITH MAY FOG, WITH
CONFIDENCE STILL MEDIUM, BUT WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY WORSEN TO
MVFR CONDITIONS.
LATER TODAY WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, BUT
TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PICK UP IN THE MORNING, WITH 10-15KTS GUSTING UP TO 25KTS OUT OF
THE SW POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS
LIKELY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR, BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS; CHANCES SOMEWHAT BETTER FOR NY
TERMINALS VERSUS KAVP WHICH MAY STAY DRY.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...KL
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