595
FXUS61 KBGM 210539
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
139 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST TRUE TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WHERE DAY TIME HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
215 PM UPDATE...
VERY REFRESHING NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURE'S IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BROKEN OUT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND TWIN TIERS.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL RIDE THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP STRONG UPDRAFTS FROM FORMING, BUT
IF SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM A JET STREAK POKING INTO THE AREA CAN
GET A DECENT UPDRAFT GOING, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50KTS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL HAIL CHANCES THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WAA IN THE MID LEVELS CUTS OFF
INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES REMAINING OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S.
WAA REALLY RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES,
BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THE CHANCES OF GETTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD GOING IS VERY LOW.
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IN THIS PERIOD IS HOW FAR NORTH THE
RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
RIDES THE N AND NE PORTION OF IT. A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A MCS SATURDAY MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN OTTAWA. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE
BUILDING FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE THAT THE MCS MOVES INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLIPPING ONEIDA COUNTY. A FEW OUTLIERS SLOW THE RIDGE'S TREK TO
THE NE AND BRING THE MCS STRAIGHT INTO OUR AREA, SO WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SEEING A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF IT DID
MOVE INTO OUR AREA, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL
BE THE START OF THE IMPENDING HOT WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS HUMIDITY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
300 PM UPDATE
A SHORTWAVE ROLLS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A STRONG WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AT
THE SURFACE FOR OUR AREA. MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY INCREASES
MARKEDLY EARLY SUNDAY AS A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML)
ARRIVES; MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH OR PERHAPS EXCEED
8.0C/KM WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE BUILDING
RIDGE. THIS IS A CLASSIC SETUP FOR FAST MOVING COMPLEXES OF
THUNDERSTORMS, SO THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ANY LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION OR
CLOUDS DISSIPATE, WITH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES ON THE
RISE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN FASTER ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO
MID-90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH DEW POINTS 70-75, AND GETTING
PEAK HEAT INDICES FROM 95 TO 105. EXTREME HEAT WATCH WAS ISSUED
STARTING SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR ALL OF NE PA, SULLIVAN
COUNTY, MOST OF THE NY SOUTHERN TIER, SOUTHERN FINGER LAKES AND
SYRACUSE METRO AREA. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED,
WITH EXPANSION POSSIBLE INTO SURROUNDING AREAS/COUNTIES AS
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
598DM 500MB RIDGE CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THE FLOW
AROUND THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL PUMP INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS. MONDAY WILL FEATURE SUNNY SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND VERY
HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S. WITH THE HUMIDITY FACTORED
IN, HEAT INDICES REACH 98 TO 108 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION.
QUIET AND MUGGY MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
320 PM UPDATE...
MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE EXTREMELY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS, WITH POSSIBLE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE
WEEK. VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE MIDWEEK, WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TRENDING HIGHER WITH A DEEPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TUESDAY LOOKS TO CONTINUE THE HEAT WAVE, WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE HIGH 60S
TO MID 70S, RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES OF MID 90S UP TO 105F.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DIP INTO THE 70S. THESE HOT DAYTIME AND
MUGGY NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO MAJOR OR EVEN EXTREME
HEATRISK OVER THE REGION. AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
EXTREME HEAT WATCHES, WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED OVER THE AREA.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH DROPS SOUTH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID-80S TO LOW 90S
EXPECTED, WITH GENERALLY 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND
NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
ELM, BGM, AND AVP BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO
6Z TOMORROW IF THEY CAN DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER NY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ018-023>025-055-056-062.
SYNOPSIS...DK/JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...AJG
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