310
FXUS61 KBGM 210732
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
332 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST TRUE TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK WHERE DAY TIME HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
215 PM UPDATE...
VERY REFRESHING NW FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURE'S IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE
BROKEN OUT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW
ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
AND TWIN TIERS.
A WEAK TROUGH WILL RIDE THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS. INSTABILITY WILL BE ELEVATED AND DRY AIR
IN THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD KEEP STRONG UPDRAFTS FROM FORMING, BUT
IF SOME ENHANCED LIFT FROM A JET STREAK POKING INTO THE AREA CAN
GET A DECENT UPDRAFT GOING, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50KTS
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL HAIL CHANCES THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WAA IN THE MID LEVELS CUTS OFF
INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES REMAINING OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S.
WAA REALLY RAMPS UP SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND A FEW
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES,
BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING SO THE CHANCES OF GETTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD GOING IS VERY LOW.
THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION IN THIS PERIOD IS HOW FAR NORTH THE
RIDGE BUILDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
RIDES THE N AND NE PORTION OF IT. A SHORTWAVE RIDING THE EDGE OF
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A MCS SATURDAY MORNING OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE INTO SOUTHERN OTTAWA. MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE
BUILDING FAR ENOUGH TO THE NE THAT THE MCS MOVES INTO NORTHERN
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND, WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CLIPPING ONEIDA COUNTY. A FEW OUTLIERS SLOW THE RIDGE'S TREK TO
THE NE AND BRING THE MCS STRAIGHT INTO OUR AREA, SO WE CANNOT
RULE OUT SEEING A MORE DIRECT IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. IF IT DID
MOVE INTO OUR AREA, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL
BE THE START OF THE IMPENDING HOT WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AS HUMIDITY BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALL OF
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA ARE UNDER HEAT ADVISORIES FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION FREE, BUT OVERALL HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO HIGH 90S LEAD TO
OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN THE MID 90S TO MID 100S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS STAY RATHER HIGH
OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, LEAVING NO ROOM FOR
OVERNIGHT RELIEF. THIS WILL LIKELY VERIFY AS THE FIRST HEAT WAVE
OF 2025 FOR SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL NY AND NE PA, WHICH IS DEFINED
AS 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 DEGREES.
ALL WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM; REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE
BREAKS IN SHADE AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE, AND ON YOUR NEIGHBORS AND
OTHERS WHO MAY NOT HAVE AIR CONDITIONING. FOR MORE HEAT SAFETY
TIPS, PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH DROPS SOUTH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID-80S TO LOW 90S
EXPECTED, WITH GENERALLY 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND
NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
ELM, BGM, AND AVP BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO
6Z TOMORROW IF THEY CAN DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER NY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...DK/JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL/MJM
AVIATION...AJG
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