237
FXUS61 KBGM 211427
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1027 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST TRUE TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES TODAY INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH DAY TIME HIGHS RISING WELL INTO THE 90S AND INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEVELS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS COULD IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
1020 AM UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR MAYBE A T'STORM EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE.
TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY CLOSE TO THE BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR THIS AFTERNOON, AND IT WILL BE A WARM ONE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 IN SOME OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS. SPC ADJUSTED THE DAY 1 SEVERE OUTLOOK FOR TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK
CATEGORIES FURTHER NORTH. THIS MAKE SENSE BASED ON THE LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND UPDATES TO THE CAMS. WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE TO BETTER DETERMINE HOW
THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY PLAY OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
630 AM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. A FEW STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OFF OF THE WARM FRONT LIFTING IN BUT COVERAGE THROUGH
THE MORNING WILL BE SPOTTY.
430 AM UPDATE...
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS RISING TO NEAR 590 DM BY SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT AT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RIDGE IS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG IT
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGE
WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY BUT THE INCREASING 850
MB WINDS AND MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW CELLS TO BREAK
THROUGH THE CAP INTO THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
TONIGHT THERE IS CONCERN WITH STRONG STORMS THAT COULD MOVE IN.
A LARGE MCS WITH WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS HAS FORMED IN THE
NORTHER PLAINS AND WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE RIDGE THROUGH TODAY. IT WONT ARRIVE IN OUR REGION UNTIL
OVERNIGHT, LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WITH THE NORTHERN
EDGE PUSHING NORTH OF OUR REGION. GIVEN THAT, ODDS ARE MOST OF
THE STORMS WILL BE NORTH BUT SOME OF THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE
TRYING TO GET SOME OF THE COLD POOL TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE RIDGE
AND TRIGGER STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A SIZABLE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SO IT WILL BE TOUGH FOR ANY STORMS TO
REALLY PUSH MUCH SOUTH OF CNY. GIVEN THAT HISTORICALLY MODELS
HAVE PERFORMED POORLY ON THESE "RING OF FIRE" STORMS AROUND THE
EDGE OF A RIDGE, AND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE TENDS TO END
UP FARTHER NORTH THAN MODELED, LEADS TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE
STORMS ACTUALLY REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS SOME OF THE MODELS
SHOW. STILL IF STORMS WERE TO FIRE, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE 8+
C/KM AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER 3000 J/KG, LARGE HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.
SUNDAY IS LOOKING HOT AND MUGGY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GETTING UP
NEAR 600 DM WHICH IS NEAR ALL TIME RECORED HEIGHTS. DRY AIR
ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY HELP LIMIT DEW POINTS TO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S BUT IF DRY AIR DOES NOT MIX IN OR
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH MIXING, DEW POINTS
MAY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS SUNDAY PUSH INTO THE UPPER
80S AND LOW 90S SO WIDESPREAD HEAD INDICES OF 100+ ARE LIKELY.
LIMITING FACTORS TO THE HEAT IS THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE
WEAK CAPPING. LAST YEAR WHEN WE HAD A SIMILAR SET UP WITH VERY
STRONG RIDGING AND HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THAT ENDED UP DROPPING TEMPERATURES BEFORE THEY
WERE ABLE TO GET AS WARM AS FORECAST SO THAT COULD OCCUR AGAIN.
HEAT ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR NOW BUT IF FORECAST TREND HIGHER
WITH TEMPS AND DEW POINTS, HEAT ADVISORIES WILL BE UPGRADED TO
WARNINGS AS NEEDED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALL OF
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA ARE UNDER HEAT ADVISORIES FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION FREE, BUT OVERALL HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO HIGH 90S LEAD TO
OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN THE MID 90S TO MID 100S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS STAY RATHER HIGH
OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, LEAVING NO ROOM FOR
OVERNIGHT RELIEF. THIS WILL LIKELY VERIFY AS THE FIRST HEAT WAVE
OF 2025 FOR SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL NY AND NE PA, WHICH IS DEFINED
AS 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 DEGREES.
ALL WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM; REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE
BREAKS IN SHADE AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE, AND ON YOUR NEIGHBORS AND
OTHERS WHO MAY NOT HAVE AIR CONDITIONING. FOR MORE HEAT SAFETY
TIPS, PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH DROPS SOUTH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID-80S TO LOW 90S
EXPECTED, WITH GENERALLY 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND
NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
ELM, BGM, AND AVP BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 6Z
TONIGHT IF THEY CAN DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
OVER NY WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR EXPECTED.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...AJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...AJG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page