937
FXUS61 KBGM 211832
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
232 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST TRUE TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES SUNDAY, INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAY TIME HIGHS RISING WELL INTO THE 90S AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD IMPACT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 LATE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HOT,
HUMID AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
200 PM UPDATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL FEATURE SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE THAT LAYER. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE, ALTHOUGH THE CIRRUS
CLOUD LAYER MAY BECOME THICKER HEADING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
THERE IS A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS
LIKELY TOO DRY FOR THIS TO OCCUR.
MOST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME OF THE LATEST
HI-RES CAMS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AN MCS AND CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE TURNING RIGHT, AND MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 3-4 AM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
MESOSCALE FEATURE, AND WHAT TRACK IT ULTIMATELY TAKES.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 4 AM TO NOON TIMEFRAME FROM ABOUT
BINGHAMTON NORTH AND EAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE EVEN HINTS AT
MORE SHOWERS AND STORM DEVELOPING AND DROPPING ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THOUGH THE TWIN TIERS AND NE PA. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WILL BE
DRASTICALLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SURFACE BASED. SPC HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS LATE NIGHT TO SUNDAY PERIOD.
0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONG SUNDAY MORNING, UP TO 50 KTS. THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IF
THEY CAN MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. BY 5AM SUNDAY MORNING,
12Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MUCAPE OF UP TO 2500 J/KG COMING
INTO THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA, AND BY 8 AM THAT INCREASES TO 3500
J/KG AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 8C/KM IN THE EML
ENVIRONMENT. IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
THEY COULD HAVE EXTREMELY HIGH STORM TOPS, REACHING 50K FT OR
HIGHER. DCAPE VALUES ALSO REACH 850 J/KG, SO DESPITE A MINOR LOW
LEVEL STABLE LAYER, IF THE WINDS CAN BREAK THROUGH THIS, STORMS
COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
HEADING INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON IT IS
LOOKING HOT AND MUGGY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GETTING UP NEAR 596
DM WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH. DRY AIR ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY
HELP LIMIT DEW POINTS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BUT IF DRY
AIR DOES NOT MIX IN OR EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS ABLE TO KEEP UP
WITH MIXING, DEW POINTS MAY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS
SUNDAY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S SO WIDESPREAD HEAD
INDICES OF 100+ ARE LIKELY. LIMITING FACTORS TO THE HEAT IS THAT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE WEAK CAPPING. IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR
SET UPS WITH VERY STRONG RIDGING AND HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THAT ENDED UP DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BEFORE THEY WERE ABLE TO GET AS WARM AS FORECAST SO THAT COULD
OCCUR AGAIN. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY, AS
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED INTO THE FORECAST BASED ON
THE LATEST QPF TRENDS IN THE NBM AND SPC'S OUTLOOK.
HEAT ADVISORIES STILL LOOKS GOOD AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN ABOUT 95 TO 104 DEGREES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE SEEMS TO BE NO NEED TO UPGRADE ANY ZONES TO
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
SUNDAY NIGHT IS QUIET AND MUGGY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
330 AM UPDATE...
WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ALL OF
CENTRAL NY AND NE PA ARE UNDER HEAT ADVISORIES FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS PRECIPITATION FREE, BUT OVERALL HIGH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO HIGH 90S LEAD TO
OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES BETWEEN THE MID 90S TO MID 100S FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS STAY RATHER HIGH
OVERNIGHT IN THE HIGH 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, LEAVING NO ROOM FOR
OVERNIGHT RELIEF. THIS WILL LIKELY VERIFY AS THE FIRST HEAT WAVE
OF 2025 FOR SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL NY AND NE PA, WHICH IS DEFINED
AS 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 DEGREES.
ALL WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM; REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED, TAKE
BREAKS IN SHADE AS OFTEN AS POSSIBLE, AND ON YOUR NEIGHBORS AND
OTHERS WHO MAY NOT HAVE AIR CONDITIONING. FOR MORE HEAT SAFETY
TIPS, PLEASE VISIT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
330 AM UPDATE...
MAIN STORY IN THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/HIGH DROPS SOUTH WEDNESDAY,
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY DECREASE, BUT IT WILL
STILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT ON WEDNESDAY WITH MID-80S TO LOW 90S
EXPECTED, WITH GENERALLY 80S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AND
NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
230 PM UPDATE
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE COULD BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POP UP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
ELM, BGM, AND AVP BUT THEY ARE TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS AT THIS TIME. RME AND SYR MAY SEE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 9Z
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF THEY CAN DROP FAR ENOUGH SOUTH.
PROB30 TSRA GROUPS WERE ADDED TO THESE TWO TERMINALS FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. LLWS IS LIKELY FROM ABOUT 03-12Z TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AT MOST TAF SITES. SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS AT 2K
FT AGL AREA FORECAST.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS,
OTHERWISE SUNNY AND VFR.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...MJM
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