295
FXUS61 KBGM 220025
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
825 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST TRUE TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES SUNDAY, INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
DAY TIME HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S AND INCREASING HUMIDITY
LEVELS. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD IMPACT AREAS ALONG
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. HOT, HUMID AND MOSTLY SUNNY
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
800 PM UPDATE...
MCS CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO NORTH OF THE LAKES.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS MCS
FEATURE WAS TAPPING INTO FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINT AIR OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S. ML CAPES WERE
RUNNING OVER 2000 J/KG OVER LOWER MICHIGAN AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 60 KNOTS AT 850 MB WERE FEEDING THIS MCS. RADAR LOOP SHOWS
CELLS CONTINUALLY FIRING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION
AS THE LEADING EDGE MOVES INTO MUCH MORE STABLE AIR. AS THIS
ENTIRE MCS WORKS EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT, THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AND BRING DEWPOINTS UP TO 17-19C AT 850
MB TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS MOISTURE FEED IS EXPECTED
TO SUSTAIN THIS MCS AS IT MOVES INTO QUEBEC AND FAR NORTHERN
NY. THE FLOW AT 850 MB WILL ACTUALLY TURN MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SUNDAY MORNING AND ALLOW THIS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR TO MOVE IN
ALOFT ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER AS THE MCS MOVES WELL EAST OF
NY/PA OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. NAM, NAMNEST AND EVEN THE HRRR
SHOW THAT THIS MCS LEAVES A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
FROM ABOUT SYR TO MSV OR THEREABOUTS AND FROM THIS MORE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE WITH THE DAY'S HEATING.
HOWEVER, GOING AGAINST THIS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
BUILDING EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER, HI
RES MODELS LIKE THE IDEA OF THIS SUSTAINED MOIST WESTERLY FLOW
UPSLOPING EAST OF I-81 INTO THIS LEFT OVER BOUNDARY TO FORCE
CONVECTION. LOOKING AT CAMS, LOOKS LIKE 12Z NAMNEST IS WAY
OVERDONE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S! 18Z NAM ALSO HAS WAY
TOO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND TOO MUCH CAPE AND CONVECTION. THE 18Z
HRRR WHICH GOES OUT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS ML CAPES 4000
J/KG WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS 74 TO 75F. LOOKING AT THE DEWPOINTS
IN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY THEY WERE MORE IN THE LOW 70S SO BELIEVE
HRRR IS A BIT OVERDONE TOO. IN ANY EVENT, THERE LIKELY WILL BE
SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS THAT DEVELOP MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN ZONES,
WHICH IS EAST OF I-81 IN CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CAPES UP TO OR EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG, POSSIBLY 3000
J/KG WHICH WAS SEEN IN LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY, THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND AGREE WITH MARGINAL RISK.
IF CAPES CAN INDEED CLIMB OVER 3000 J/KG, I COULD SEE A SLIGHT
RISK IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 200 PM DISCUSSION
BELOW HAS MORE DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING HEAT WAVE.
200 PM UPDATE...
MOST OF TONIGHT SHOULD BE QUIET, WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME OF THE LATEST
HI-RES CAMS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL
FOR AN MCS AND CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE TURNING RIGHT, AND MOVING
SOUTH INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AFTER ABOUT 3-4 AM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE REMAINS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
MESOSCALE FEATURE, AND WHAT TRACK IT ULTIMATELY TAKES.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 4 AM TO NOON TIMEFRAME FROM ABOUT
BINGHAMTON NORTH AND EAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE EVEN HINTS AT
MORE SHOWERS AND STORM DEVELOPING AND DROPPING ALL THE WAY SOUTH
THOUGH THE TWIN TIERS AND NE PA. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WILL BE
DRASTICALLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SURFACE BASED. SPC HAS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS LATE NIGHT TO SUNDAY PERIOD.
0-6KM SHEAR IS STRONG SUNDAY MORNING, UP TO 50 KTS. THE MAIN
THREATS WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS IF
THEY CAN MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. BY 5AM SUNDAY MORNING,
12Z NAM SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MUCAPE OF UP TO 2500 J/KG COMING
INTO THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA, AND BY 8 AM THAT INCREASES TO 3500
J/KG AS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 8C/KM IN THE EML
ENVIRONMENT. IF ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
THEY COULD HAVE EXTREMELY HIGH STORM TOPS, REACHING 50K FT OR
HIGHER. DCAPE VALUES ALSO REACH 850 J/KG, SO DESPITE A MINOR LOW
LEVEL STABLE LAYER, IF THE WINDS CAN BREAK THROUGH THIS, STORMS
COULD CERTAINLY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
HEADING INTO LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON IT IS
LOOKING HOT AND MUGGY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GETTING UP NEAR 596
DM WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH. DRY AIR ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY
HELP LIMIT DEW POINTS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BUT IF DRY
AIR DOES NOT MIX IN OR EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS ABLE TO KEEP UP
WITH MIXING, DEW POINTS MAY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS
SUNDAY PUSH INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S SO WIDESPREAD HEAD
INDICES OF 100+ ARE LIKELY. LIMITING FACTORS TO THE HEAT IS THAT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HAVE WEAK CAPPING. IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR
SET UPS WITH VERY STRONG RIDGING AND HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THAT ENDED UP DROPPING TEMPERATURES
BEFORE THEY WERE ABLE TO GET AS WARM AS FORECAST SO THAT COULD
OCCUR AGAIN. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A POSSIBILITY ON SUNDAY, AS
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED INTO THE FORECAST BASED ON
THE LATEST QPF TRENDS IN THE NBM AND SPC'S OUTLOOK.
HEAT ADVISORIES STILL LOOKS GOOD AS MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE
PEAK HEAT INDICES BETWEEN ABOUT 95 TO 104 DEGREES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE SEEMS TO BE NO NEED TO UPGRADE ANY ZONES TO
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
SUNDAY NIGHT IS QUIET AND MUGGY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY DROP INTO THE 70S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
320 PM UPDATE:
A VERY STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
90S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE, THE NBM APPEARED TO BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON DEW
POINTS, SO LOWERED DEW POINTS BY A FEW DEGREES. EITHER WAY, HEAT
INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO MID 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 70S, SO THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT. HEAT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THOSE MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS IF CONFIDENCE IN
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES INCREASES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
320 PM UPDATE:
AFTER A DRY EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, THE STRONG RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND DROP A BIT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MAY BE ABLE TO RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RELATIVELY NEARBY. THIS WILL ALL ALSO RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
230 PM UPDATE
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT KSYR, KRME, KITH AND KBGM SEE A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY SUNDAY DURING THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH CONVECTION SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING
THIS. SO WE WENT WITH PROB30 GROUPS FROM 12-18Z AT KRME WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS AND 15Z-21Z AT KBGM, KITH AND KSYR AGAIN W/ MVFR
CONDITIONS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
VIRTUALLY NO THUNDERSTORMS OR JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SUNDAY.
THE NAM AND 3KM NAM ARE MUCH MORE BULLISH ON THUNDERSTORMS EVEN
BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT IN OUR NORTHERN TERMINALS KRME, KSYR AND
KITH. SO AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW HERE AND OPTED FOR PROB30
GROUPS. WITH WARMER AIR RIDING IN ALOFT ON WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS OVERNIGHT, A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION SETS UP WHICH
WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT KRME, KSYR, KITH AND KELM OVERNIGHT UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING. SO WE HAVE LLWS IN THESE TERMINALS. KBGM AND
KAVP WILL ALSO SEE SOME LLWS BUT IT FALLS SHORT OF CRITERIA.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TOWARD 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MJM
NEAR TERM...DJN/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DJN
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