181
FXUS61 KBGM 220517
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
117 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
OVERNIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL NEW YORK AREAS GOING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE FIRST TRUE
TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES TODAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
100 AM UPDATE..
THE MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NORTH OF THE AREA, STARTING TO BOW
AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. CONTRARY TO GUIDANCE, WHERE HALF OF
SOLUTIONS FAVOR A MORE EASTWARD TRACK, AS WELL AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO KEEP THIS MCS ON AN EASTWARD
TRACK, IT SEEMS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-81, BUT VERY WELL COULD EXTEND INTO
ALL OF CENTRAL NY. THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF GETTING
CLOSER TO THE NY-PA STATE BORDER.
FOR TOMORROW, ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WILL BE DRASTICALLY
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SURFACE BASED. BY 5 AM THIS MORNING,
GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCAPE OF UP TO 2500 J/KG COMING INTO THE NW HALF
OF OUR CWA, AND BY 8 AM THAT INCREASES TO 3500 J/KG AS MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 8 C/KM IN THE EML ENVIRONMENT. IF
ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY COULD HAVE
EXTREMELY HIGH STORM TOPS, REACHING 50K FT OR HIGHER. DCAPE
VALUES ALSO REACH 850 J/KG, SO DESPITE A MINOR LOW LEVEL STABLE
LAYER, IF THE WINDS CAN BREAK THROUGH THIS, STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
HEADING INTO LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON IT IS LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GETTING UP NEAR 598 DM WHICH IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH. DRY AIR ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY HELP LIMIT
DEW POINTS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BUT IF DRY AIR DOES NOT
MIX IN OR EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH MIXING, DEW
POINTS MAY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS TODAY PUSH INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S SO WIDESPREAD HEAD INDICES OF 100+ ARE
LIKELY. LIMITING FACTORS TO THE HEAT IS THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO HAVE WEAK CAPPING. IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR SET UPS WITH VERY
STRONG RIDGING AND HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THAT ENDED UP DROPPING TEMPERATURES BEFORE THEY
WERE ABLE TO GET AS WARM AS FORECAST SO THAT COULD OCCUR AGAIN.
HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE, AND WE WILL SEE PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN ABOUT 95 TO 104 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
SEEMS TO BE NO NEED TO UPGRADE ANY ZONES TO EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS MENTIONED
ABOVE.
MONDAY WILL BE HOTTER, WITH THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD,
AND HEAT INDICES UP TO 104 EXPECTED. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE GOING INTO THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
320 PM UPDATE:
A VERY STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE ENTIRE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO RESULT IN HOT
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
90S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS IS
TYPICALLY THE CASE, THE NBM APPEARED TO BE A BIT TOO HIGH ON DEW
POINTS, SO LOWERED DEW POINTS BY A FEW DEGREES. EITHER WAY, HEAT
INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO MID 100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE 70S, SO THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT. HEAT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE AND IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THOSE MAY
NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS IF CONFIDENCE IN
EXCEEDING 105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES INCREASES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
320 PM UPDATE:
AFTER A DRY EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, THE STRONG RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND DROP A BIT SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MAY BE ABLE TO RIDE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SPARK SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY STARTING ON WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY EACH
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RELATIVELY NEARBY. THIS WILL ALL ALSO RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
110 AM UPDATE...
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT SYR AND RME, WHERE THEY COULD SEE
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, AS
WELL AS A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z THAT COULD DROP CONDITIONS. THERE ARE ALSO
CHANCES THAT KITH AND KBGM SEE A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
SUNDAY DURING THE DAY, WITH PROB30 GROUPS ADDED TO INCLUDE THAT
CHANCE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO POOR CONSENSUS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE, WHERE THEY HANDLED THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM COMPLEX
POORLY, AND OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS. WITH WARMER AIR RIDING IN
ALOFT ON WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT, A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION SETS UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO LLWS FOR ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT AVP OVERNIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SO WE HAVE LLWS IN
THESE TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TOWARD 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...KL
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