060
FXUS61 KBGM 220529
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
129 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
OVERNIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL NEW YORK AREAS GOING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE FIRST TRUE
TASTE OF SUMMER ARRIVES TODAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DAY TIME
HIGHS RISING INTO THE 90S AND INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
100 AM UPDATE..
THE MCS CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NORTH OF THE AREA, STARTING TO BOW
AND MOVE SOUTHWARD. CONTRARY TO GUIDANCE, WHERE HALF OF
SOLUTIONS FAVOR A MORE EASTWARD TRACK, AS WELL AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS ATTEMPTING TO KEEP THIS MCS ON AN EASTWARD
TRACK, IT SEEMS THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF I-81, BUT VERY WELL COULD EXTEND INTO
ALL OF CENTRAL NY. THE BIGGEST THREAT OVERNIGHT WILL BE STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TAPER OFF GETTING
CLOSER TO THE NY-PA STATE BORDER.
FOR TOMORROW, ELEVATED CAPE VALUES WILL BE DRASTICALLY
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND
EVENTUALLY BECOMING SURFACE BASED. BY 5 AM THIS MORNING,
GUIDANCE SHOWS MUCAPE OF UP TO 2500 J/KG COMING INTO THE NW HALF
OF OUR CWA, AND BY 8 AM THAT INCREASES TO 3500 J/KG AS MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACH 8 C/KM IN THE EML ENVIRONMENT. IF
ANY STORMS CAN GET GOING IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEY COULD HAVE
EXTREMELY HIGH STORM TOPS, REACHING 50K FT OR HIGHER. DCAPE
VALUES ALSO REACH 850 J/KG, SO DESPITE A MINOR LOW LEVEL STABLE
LAYER, IF THE WINDS CAN BREAK THROUGH THIS, STORMS COULD
CERTAINLY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
HEADING INTO LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON IT IS LOOKING HOT
AND MUGGY WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS GETTING UP NEAR 598 DM WHICH IS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH. DRY AIR ABOVE THE MIXED LAYER MAY HELP LIMIT
DEW POINTS TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S BUT IF DRY AIR DOES NOT
MIX IN OR EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IS ABLE TO KEEP UP WITH MIXING, DEW
POINTS MAY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HIGHS TODAY PUSH INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S SO WIDESPREAD HEAD INDICES OF 100+ ARE
LIKELY. LIMITING FACTORS TO THE HEAT IS THAT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO HAVE WEAK CAPPING. IN PREVIOUS SIMILAR SET UPS WITH VERY
STRONG RIDGING AND HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AND THAT ENDED UP DROPPING TEMPERATURES BEFORE THEY
WERE ABLE TO GET AS WARM AS FORECAST SO THAT COULD OCCUR AGAIN.
HEAT ADVISORIES CONTINUE, AND WE WILL SEE PEAK HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN ABOUT 95 TO 104 DEGREES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
SEEMS TO BE NO NEED TO UPGRADE ANY ZONES TO EXTREME HEAT
WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND POP UP SHOWERS AND STORMS MENTIONED
ABOVE.
MONDAY WILL BE HOTTER, WITH THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD,
AND HEAT INDICES UP TO 104 EXPECTED. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL
CONTINUE GOING INTO THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
130 AM UPDATE...
STRONG RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH 500 MB
HEIGHTS UP AROUND 595 T0 598 DM. WITH THE JET STREAM BACK TO THE
NORTH AND WEAKER FLOW OVER OUR REGION ALONG WITH A STOUT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A
TOUGH TIME FORMING IN THE AFTERNOONS DESPITE PLENTY OF HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. STILL AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE IS STILL 2000 TO 3000 J/KG OF CAPE.
MOUNTAINS AND TERRAIN COULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO BREAK
THROUGH THE STRONG CAPPING BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO ADD CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE CATSKILLS OR POCONOS ON
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE THE RIDGE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO
FLATTEN WITH WEAKER CAPPING. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE AT
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTHWARD AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE SHIFTS BACK SOUTH.
DAY TIME HIGHS TUESDAY WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DRY AIR IN THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY MIX IN SO THAT COULD HELP LOWER DEW
POINTS A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON BUT IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
130 AM UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM IS LOOKING FAIRLY ACTIVE AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
OUT AND WE END UP ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL PUT US INTO THE "RING OF FIRE" WITH
FREQUENT SHORTWAVES AND CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH.
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WERE KEPT HIGH, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS WHEN THERE IS PLENTY OF CAPE. AS OF NOW
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLES DONT SHOW GREAT PROBABILITY OF
SHEAR GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS ALONG WITH GREATER THAN 1000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE BUT STILL ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR 0-6 KM SHEAR ARE AROUND 15
TO 25 WHICH IS GOOD ENOUGH FOR A STRONGER STORM OR TWO EACH
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THURSDAY ONWARD ARE HIGH
AND RESIDE OVER 1.5 INCHES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SO FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
110 AM UPDATE...
VFR TAFS ARE EXPECTED MOST OF THE TIME AT ALL TERMINALS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, EXCEPT SYR AND RME, WHERE THEY COULD SEE
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, AS
WELL AS A TEMPO GROUP FOR STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z THAT COULD DROP CONDITIONS. THERE ARE ALSO
CHANCES THAT KITH AND KBGM SEE A ROGUE THUNDERSTORM MAINLY
SUNDAY DURING THE DAY, WITH PROB30 GROUPS ADDED TO INCLUDE THAT
CHANCE. CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO POOR CONSENSUS IN MODEL
GUIDANCE, WHERE THEY HANDLED THE EVOLUTION OF A STORM COMPLEX
POORLY, AND OPTED FOR PROB30 GROUPS. WITH WARMER AIR RIDING IN
ALOFT ON WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT, A STRONG TEMPERATURE
INVERSION SETS UP WHICH WILL LEAD TO LLWS FOR ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT AVP OVERNIGHT UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. SO WE HAVE LLWS IN
THESE TERMINALS.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TOWARD 20 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY THRU TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WITH VFR EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY....CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.
BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.
SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...KL
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